Predictions / Football / Slovakia. 3. liga - East / Lipany vs Poprad

Prediction Audit: Lipany vs Poprad Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Lipany Lipany
May 23, 2026 - 12:00
0 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 48%
Poprad Poprad

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Lipany at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Lipany Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Poprad +2.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Lipany 41.8% 43.8% -2.0 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 26.1% -0.5 pp Aligned
Poprad 32.6% 30.0% +2.5 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Lipany; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 23, 2026 · 19:42 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Lipany 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Poprad 32.6%
    • xG · Lipany 1.45 — Poprad 1.25
  2. May 23, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Lipany 2.03 · Draw 3.40 · Poprad 2.96
    • Implied 1X2 · Lipany 43.8% · Draw 26.1% · Poprad 30.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 23, 2026 · 14:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Lipany 2.03 · Draw 3.40 · Poprad 2.96
    • Implied 1X2 · Lipany 43.8% · Draw 26.1% · Poprad 30.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 23, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 87/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 03:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1542095

Closing Odds 2.96
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Lipany 0–0 Poprad
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 3. liga - East
  • Fixture: Lipany vs Poprad
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-23 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Lipany 1.45 — Poprad 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 61.0% · Implied: 56.7% · Probability edge: +4.3 pts · Est. EV: +4.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 59.4% · No 40.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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3. liga - East 3. liga - East — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Humenné 26 21 5 0 68
2 Spišská Nová Ves 26 20 5 1 65
3 MSK Tesla Stropkov 26 13 5 8 44
4 Lipany 26 13 4 9 43
5 Poprad 26 11 4 11 37
6 Raslavice 26 10 5 10 35
7 Spartak Medzev 26 9 6 11 33
8 Snina 26 8 7 11 31
9 Kežmarok 26 9 4 13 31
10 Lokomotíva Košice 26 7 9 10 30
11 Košice II 26 8 5 13 29
12 Vranov nad Topľou 26 5 10 11 25
13 Slovan Sabinov 26 5 9 12 24
14 Spišské Podhradie 26 2 4 20 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Humenné 26 88 20 +68 68
2 Spišská Nová Ves 26 66 18 +48 65
3 MSK Tesla Stropkov 26 48 37 +11 44
4 Spartak Medzev 26 47 50 -3 33
5 Lipany 26 46 43 +3 43
6 Raslavice 26 46 45 +1 35
7 Košice II 26 43 48 -5 29
8 Kežmarok 26 42 48 -6 31
9 Poprad 26 35 34 +1 37
10 Snina 26 33 38 -5 31
11 Vranov nad Topľou 26 33 45 -12 25
12 Lokomotíva Košice 26 33 59 -26 30
13 Spišské Podhradie 26 27 81 -54 10
14 Slovan Sabinov 26 26 47 -21 24
3. liga - East Slovakia. 3. liga - East Predictions