Predictions / Football / Slovakia. 3. liga - East / Kežmarok vs Humenné

Prediction Audit: Kežmarok vs Humenné Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kežmarok Kežmarok
May 23, 2026 - 12:00
0 1.45
6 1.25
xG Accuracy: 18%
Humenné Humenné

The model missed the final outcome (Humenné win 0–6).

The model had projected Kežmarok at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Kežmarok Humenné ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 0-2, 1-3, 0-1 0-6 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 6 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Kežmarok; match finished Humenné

Market lesson

The full-time result was Humenné win 0–6, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 23, 2026 · 19:43 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Kežmarok 1.45 — Humenné 1.25
  2. May 23, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Humenné win · 0–6
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 27, 2026 · 03:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5630072

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Humenné win · Kežmarok 0–6 Humenné
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 3. liga - East
  • Fixture: Kežmarok vs Humenné
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-23 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Kežmarok 1.45 — Humenné 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 30.3% · Over 2.5 69.7%); BTTS Yes (Yes 83.3% · No 16.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 83.3% · No 16.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (9.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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3. liga - East 3. liga - East — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Humenné 26 21 5 0 68
2 Spišská Nová Ves 26 20 5 1 65
3 MSK Tesla Stropkov 26 13 5 8 44
4 Lipany 26 13 4 9 43
5 Poprad 26 11 4 11 37
6 Raslavice 26 10 5 10 35
7 Spartak Medzev 26 9 6 11 33
8 Snina 26 8 7 11 31
9 Kežmarok 26 9 4 13 31
10 Lokomotíva Košice 26 7 9 10 30
11 Košice II 26 8 5 13 29
12 Vranov nad Topľou 26 5 10 11 25
13 Slovan Sabinov 26 5 9 12 24
14 Spišské Podhradie 26 2 4 20 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Humenné 26 88 20 +68 68
2 Spišská Nová Ves 26 66 18 +48 65
3 MSK Tesla Stropkov 26 48 37 +11 44
4 Spartak Medzev 26 47 50 -3 33
5 Lipany 26 46 43 +3 43
6 Raslavice 26 46 45 +1 35
7 Košice II 26 43 48 -5 29
8 Kežmarok 26 42 48 -6 31
9 Poprad 26 35 34 +1 37
10 Snina 26 33 38 -5 31
11 Vranov nad Topľou 26 33 45 -12 25
12 Lokomotíva Košice 26 33 59 -26 30
13 Spišské Podhradie 26 27 81 -54 10
14 Slovan Sabinov 26 26 47 -21 24
3. liga - East Slovakia. 3. liga - East Predictions