Predictions / Football / Slovakia. 3. liga - East / Lipany vs Spišská Nová Ves

Prediction Audit: Lipany vs Spišská Nová Ves Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Lipany Lipany
May 09, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 55%
Spišská Nová Ves Spišská Nová Ves

The model missed the final outcome (Spišská Nová Ves win 0–2).

The model had projected Lipany at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Lipany Spišská Nová Ves ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 0-2, 1-3, 0-1 0-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Spišská Nová Ves higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Spišská Nová Ves -24.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Lipany 41.8% 20.4% +21.4 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 23.1% +2.6 pp Aligned
Spišská Nová Ves 32.6% 56.6% -24.0 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Spišská Nová Ves's win probability at 56.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 24.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Spišská Nová Ves win 0–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 0–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Lipany by 24.0 percentage points (65.8% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 14:57 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Lipany 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Spišská Nová Ves 32.6%
    • xG · Lipany 1.45 — Spišská Nová Ves 1.25
  2. May 09, 2026 · 14:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Lipany 4.36 · Draw 3.85 · Spišská Nová Ves 1.57
    • Implied 1X2 · Lipany 20.4% · Draw 23.1% · Spišská Nová Ves 56.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 09, 2026 · 14:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Lipany 4.36 · Draw 3.85 · Spišská Nová Ves 1.57
    • Implied 1X2 · Lipany 20.4% · Draw 23.1% · Spišská Nová Ves 56.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 09, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Spišská Nová Ves win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (24 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 06, 2026 · 05:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3104007

Closing Odds 1.57
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Spišská Nová Ves win · Lipany 0–2 Spišská Nová Ves
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 3. liga - East
  • Fixture: Lipany vs Spišská Nová Ves
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Lipany 1.45 — Spišská Nová Ves 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.5%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 32.1% · Over 2.5 67.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 78.1% · No 21.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 78.1% · No 21.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (9.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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3. liga - East 3. liga - East — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Humenné 26 21 5 0 68
2 Spišská Nová Ves 26 20 5 1 65
3 MSK Tesla Stropkov 26 13 5 8 44
4 Lipany 26 13 4 9 43
5 Poprad 26 11 4 11 37
6 Raslavice 26 10 5 10 35
7 Spartak Medzev 26 9 6 11 33
8 Snina 26 8 7 11 31
9 Kežmarok 26 9 4 13 31
10 Lokomotíva Košice 26 7 9 10 30
11 Košice II 26 8 5 13 29
12 Vranov nad Topľou 26 5 10 11 25
13 Slovan Sabinov 26 5 9 12 24
14 Spišské Podhradie 26 2 4 20 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Humenné 26 88 20 +68 68
2 Spišská Nová Ves 26 66 18 +48 65
3 MSK Tesla Stropkov 26 48 37 +11 44
4 Spartak Medzev 26 47 50 -3 33
5 Lipany 26 46 43 +3 43
6 Raslavice 26 46 45 +1 35
7 Košice II 26 43 48 -5 29
8 Kežmarok 26 42 48 -6 31
9 Poprad 26 35 34 +1 37
10 Snina 26 33 38 -5 31
11 Vranov nad Topľou 26 33 45 -12 25
12 Lokomotíva Košice 26 33 59 -26 30
13 Spišské Podhradie 26 27 81 -54 10
14 Slovan Sabinov 26 26 47 -21 24
3. liga - East Slovakia. 3. liga - East Predictions