Predictions / Football / Slovakia. 3. liga - Center / Rimavská Sobota vs Baník Kalinovo

Prediction Audit: Rimavská Sobota vs Baník Kalinovo Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Rimavská Sobota Rimavská Sobota
May 30, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 48%
Baník Kalinovo Baník Kalinovo

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Rimavská Sobota at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Rimavská Sobota Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 3-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Rimavská Sobota higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Rimavská Sobota -9.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Rimavská Sobota 41.8% 51.7% -9.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 22.9% +2.7 pp Aligned
Baník Kalinovo 32.6% 25.4% +7.2 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Rimavská Sobota's win probability at 51.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 9.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Rimavská Sobota. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Rimavská Sobota; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Rimavská Sobota by 9.9 percentage points (51.7% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 30, 2026 · 19:08 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Rimavská Sobota 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Baník Kalinovo 32.6%
    • xG · Rimavská Sobota 1.45 — Baník Kalinovo 1.25
  2. May 30, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Rimavská Sobota 1.74 · Draw 3.92 · Baník Kalinovo 3.54
    • Implied 1X2 · Rimavská Sobota 51.7% · Draw 22.9% · Baník Kalinovo 25.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 30, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Rimavská Sobota 1.74 · Draw 3.92 · Baník Kalinovo 3.54
    • Implied 1X2 · Rimavská Sobota 51.7% · Draw 22.9% · Baník Kalinovo 25.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 30, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 50/100
Betting Confidence 77/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 06, 2026 · 13:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3120019

Closing Odds 1.74
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Rimavská Sobota 0–0 Baník Kalinovo
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 3. liga - Center
  • Fixture: Rimavská Sobota vs Baník Kalinovo
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-30 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Rimavská Sobota 1.45 — Baník Kalinovo 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 40.2% · Implied: 34.2% · Probability edge: +6.0 pts · Est. EV: +12.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 59.8% · No 40.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (8.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Predictions
3. liga - Center 3. liga - Center — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 MFK Bytča 26 18 5 3 59
2 Banská Byst II 26 15 7 4 52
3 Námestovo 26 17 3 6 54
4 Novohrad Lučenec 26 12 7 7 43
5 Fiľakovo 26 13 4 9 43
6 Fomat Martin 26 11 7 8 40
7 Rimavská Sobota 26 10 6 10 36
8 Ružomberok II 26 10 6 10 36
9 Podkonice 26 10 4 12 34
10 Baník Kalinovo 26 9 3 14 30
11 Oravské Veselé 26 7 5 14 26
12 Dolný Kubín 26 5 7 14 22
13 Kysucké Nové Mesto 26 4 6 16 18
14 Jednota Bánová 26 3 6 17 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Námestovo 26 66 28 +38 54
2 MFK Bytča 26 57 30 +27 59
3 Rimavská Sobota 26 53 57 -4 36
4 Fomat Martin 26 51 38 +13 40
5 Ružomberok II 26 50 44 +6 36
6 Banská Byst II 26 49 29 +20 52
7 Fiľakovo 26 46 44 +2 43
8 Dolný Kubín 26 42 63 -21 22
9 Podkonice 26 40 40 0 34
10 Novohrad Lučenec 26 39 33 +6 43
11 Oravské Veselé 26 36 45 -9 26
12 Baník Kalinovo 26 30 43 -13 30
13 Jednota Bánová 26 26 59 -33 15
14 Kysucké Nové Mesto 26 19 51 -32 18
3. liga - Center Slovakia. 3. liga - Center Predictions