Predictions / Football / Slovakia. 3. liga - Center / Jednota Bánová vs Fomat Martin

Prediction Audit: Jednota Bánová vs Fomat Martin Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Jednota Bánová Jednota Bánová
May 23, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 72%
Fomat Martin Fomat Martin

The model missed the final outcome (Fomat Martin win 1–2).

The model had projected Jednota Bánová at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Jednota Bánová Fomat Martin ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 0-2, 0-1, 1-3 1-2 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Jednota Bánová; match finished Fomat Martin

Market lesson

The full-time result was Fomat Martin win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 23, 2026 · 19:41 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Jednota Bánová 1.45 — Fomat Martin 1.25
  2. May 23, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Fomat Martin win · 1–2
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 12, 2026 · 08:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8303891

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Fomat Martin win · Jednota Bánová 1–2 Fomat Martin
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 3. liga - Center
  • Fixture: Jednota Bánová vs Fomat Martin
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-23 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Jednota Bánová 1.45 — Fomat Martin 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 35.9% · Over 2.5 64.1%); BTTS Yes (Yes 58.3% · No 41.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 58.3% · No 41.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (9.8%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Predictions
3. liga - Center 3. liga - Center — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 MFK Bytča 26 18 5 3 59
2 Banská Byst II 26 15 7 4 52
3 Námestovo 26 17 3 6 54
4 Novohrad Lučenec 26 12 7 7 43
5 Fiľakovo 26 13 4 9 43
6 Fomat Martin 26 11 7 8 40
7 Rimavská Sobota 26 10 6 10 36
8 Ružomberok II 26 10 6 10 36
9 Podkonice 26 10 4 12 34
10 Baník Kalinovo 26 9 3 14 30
11 Oravské Veselé 26 7 5 14 26
12 Dolný Kubín 26 5 7 14 22
13 Kysucké Nové Mesto 26 4 6 16 18
14 Jednota Bánová 26 3 6 17 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Námestovo 26 66 28 +38 54
2 MFK Bytča 26 57 30 +27 59
3 Rimavská Sobota 26 53 57 -4 36
4 Fomat Martin 26 51 38 +13 40
5 Ružomberok II 26 50 44 +6 36
6 Banská Byst II 26 49 29 +20 52
7 Fiľakovo 26 46 44 +2 43
8 Dolný Kubín 26 42 63 -21 22
9 Podkonice 26 40 40 0 34
10 Novohrad Lučenec 26 39 33 +6 43
11 Oravské Veselé 26 36 45 -9 26
12 Baník Kalinovo 26 30 43 -13 30
13 Jednota Bánová 26 26 59 -33 15
14 Kysucké Nové Mesto 26 19 51 -32 18
3. liga - Center Slovakia. 3. liga - Center Predictions