The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Fomat Martin at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Fomat Martin Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Fomat Martin 1.45 — Podkonice 1.25
-
Apr 11, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Fomat Martin 0–0 Podkonice
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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3. liga - Center — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MFK Bytča | 26 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 59 |
| 2 | Banská Byst II | 26 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 52 |
| 3 | Námestovo | 26 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 54 |
| 4 | Novohrad Lučenec | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 43 |
| 5 | Fiľakovo | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 43 |
| 6 | Fomat Martin | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 40 |
| 7 | Rimavská Sobota | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 36 |
| 8 | Ružomberok II | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 36 |
| 9 | Podkonice | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 34 |
| 10 | Baník Kalinovo | 26 | 9 | 3 | 14 | 30 |
| 11 | Oravské Veselé | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 26 |
| 12 | Dolný Kubín | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 22 |
| 13 | Kysucké Nové Mesto | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 18 |
| 14 | Jednota Bánová | 26 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 15 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Námestovo | 26 | 66 | 28 | +38 | 54 |
| 2 | MFK Bytča | 26 | 57 | 30 | +27 | 59 |
| 3 | Rimavská Sobota | 26 | 53 | 57 | -4 | 36 |
| 4 | Fomat Martin | 26 | 51 | 38 | +13 | 40 |
| 5 | Ružomberok II | 26 | 50 | 44 | +6 | 36 |
| 6 | Banská Byst II | 26 | 49 | 29 | +20 | 52 |
| 7 | Fiľakovo | 26 | 46 | 44 | +2 | 43 |
| 8 | Dolný Kubín | 26 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 22 |
| 9 | Podkonice | 26 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 34 |
| 10 | Novohrad Lučenec | 26 | 39 | 33 | +6 | 43 |
| 11 | Oravské Veselé | 26 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 26 |
| 12 | Baník Kalinovo | 26 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 30 |
| 13 | Jednota Bánová | 26 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 15 |
| 14 | Kysucké Nové Mesto | 26 | 19 | 51 | -32 | 18 |
