Prediction Audit: FC Levante Badalona vs Real Madrid W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FC Levante Badalona

May 26, 2026 - 17:00

0 1.45

4 1.25

xG Accuracy: 32%

Real Madrid W

The model missed the final outcome (Real Madrid W win 0–4).

The model had projected FC Levante Badalona at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 FC Levante Badalona Real Madrid W ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 0-1, 0-2, 1-1, 1-2, 0-0 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
FC Levante Badalona	41.8%	19.0%	+22.8 pp	Model Edge
Draw	25.7%	20.8%	+4.9 pp	Aligned
Real Madrid W	32.6%	60.2%	-27.7 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates Real Madrid W's win probability at 60.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 27.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Real Madrid W win 0–4.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
1X2: model leaned FC Levante Badalona; match finished Real Madrid W

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on FC Levante Badalona by 27.7 percentage points (69.5% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

May 26, 2026 · 18:18 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · FC Levante Badalona 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Real Madrid W 32.6%
- xG · FC Levante Badalona 1.45 — Real Madrid W 1.25
May 26, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · FC Levante Badalona 5.81 · Draw 4.64 · Real Madrid W 1.42
- Implied 1X2 · FC Levante Badalona 15.8% · Draw 19.7% · Real Madrid W 64.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
May 26, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · FC Levante Badalona 4.89 · Draw 4.46 · Real Madrid W 1.54
- Implied 1X2 · FC Levante Badalona 19.0% · Draw 20.8% · Real Madrid W 60.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
May 26, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Real Madrid W win · 0–4
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (28 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market strongly disagrees on price
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Monitoring Confidence 13/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 14:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3439522

Closing Odds 1.54

AI Fair Odds 2.39

CLV Pending

Final Result Real Madrid W win · FC Levante Badalona 0–4 Real Madrid W

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

Expected: 41.8%
Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=2)

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Primera División Femenina
Fixture: FC Levante Badalona vs Real Madrid W
Kickoff: 2026-05-26 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): FC Levante Badalona 1.45 — Real Madrid W 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 37.4% · Probability edge: +14.4 pts · Est. EV: +35.7%
BTTS (model): Yes 45.9% · No 54.1%
Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (13.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División Femenina — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Barcelona W	30	29	0	1	87
2	Real Madrid W	30	23	3	4	72
3	Real Sociedad W	30	20	6	4	66
4	Granad. Tenerife W	30	14	12	4	54
5	Atletico Madrid W	30	14	9	7	51
6	Granada	30	13	6	11	45
7	Athletic Club W	30	12	8	10	44
8	Sevilla W	30	12	5	13	41
9	FC Levante Badalona	30	10	9	11	39
10	Madrid CFF W	30	11	4	15	37
11	Espanyol W	30	7	10	13	31
12	Deportivo de La Coruña W	30	8	7	15	31
13	Eibar W	30	8	4	18	28
14	Edf Logrono W	30	4	9	17	21
15	Alhama	30	3	5	22	14
16	Levante W	30	2	3	25	9

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Barcelona W	30	130	9	+121	87
2	Real Madrid W	30	65	18	+47	72
3	Atletico Madrid W	30	63	39	+24	51
4	Real Sociedad W	30	61	27	+34	66
5	Granad. Tenerife W	30	49	22	+27	54
6	Madrid CFF W	30	41	59	-18	37
7	Granada	30	36	42	-6	45
8	Athletic Club W	30	35	44	-9	44
9	Deportivo de La Coruña W	30	34	54	-20	31
10	Sevilla W	30	33	46	-13	41
11	Edf Logrono W	30	29	54	-25	21
12	Espanyol W	30	28	44	-16	31
13	FC Levante Badalona	30	28	46	-18	39
14	Alhama	30	23	78	-55	14
15	Eibar W	30	18	47	-29	28
16	Levante W	30	18	62	-44	9