Predictions / Football / Spain. Primera División Femenina / FC Levante Badalona vs Athletic Club W

Prediction Audit: FC Levante Badalona vs Athletic Club W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FC Levante Badalona FC Levante Badalona
May 02, 2026 - 10:00
0 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
Athletic Club W Athletic Club W

The model missed the final outcome (Athletic Club W win 0–1).

The model had projected FC Levante Badalona at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 FC Levante Badalona Athletic Club W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates FC Levante Badalona considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: FC Levante Badalona +7.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
FC Levante Badalona 41.8% 34.4% +7.4 pp Model Higher
Draw 25.7% 25.8% -0.2 pp Aligned
Athletic Club W 32.6% 39.8% -7.2 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates FC Levante Badalona's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 34.4%, a difference of 7.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Athletic Club W win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on FC Levante Badalona.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on FC Levante Badalona by 7.4 percentage points (34.4% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · FC Levante Badalona 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Athletic Club W 32.6%
    • xG · FC Levante Badalona 1.45 — Athletic Club W 1.25
  2. May 03, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · FC Levante Badalona 2.70 · Draw 3.59 · Athletic Club W 2.33
    • Implied 1X2 · FC Levante Badalona 34.4% · Draw 25.8% · Athletic Club W 39.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 03, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · FC Levante Badalona 2.70 · Draw 3.59 · Athletic Club W 2.33
    • Implied 1X2 · FC Levante Badalona 34.4% · Draw 25.8% · Athletic Club W 39.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 02, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Athletic Club W win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 21/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 02:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1531238

Closing Odds 2.7
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Athletic Club W win · FC Levante Badalona 0–1 Athletic Club W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Primera División Femenina Primera División Femenina — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Barcelona W 30 29 0 1 87
2 Real Madrid W 30 23 3 4 72
3 Real Sociedad W 30 20 6 4 66
4 Granad. Tenerife W 30 14 12 4 54
5 Atletico Madrid W 30 14 9 7 51
6 Granada 30 13 6 11 45
7 Athletic Club W 30 12 8 10 44
8 Sevilla W 30 12 5 13 41
9 FC Levante Badalona 30 10 9 11 39
10 Madrid CFF W 30 11 4 15 37
11 Espanyol W 30 7 10 13 31
12 Deportivo de La Coruña W 30 8 7 15 31
13 Eibar W 30 8 4 18 28
14 Edf Logrono W 30 4 9 17 21
15 Alhama 30 3 5 22 14
16 Levante W 30 2 3 25 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Barcelona W 30 130 9 +121 87
2 Real Madrid W 30 65 18 +47 72
3 Atletico Madrid W 30 63 39 +24 51
4 Real Sociedad W 30 61 27 +34 66
5 Granad. Tenerife W 30 49 22 +27 54
6 Madrid CFF W 30 41 59 -18 37
7 Granada 30 36 42 -6 45
8 Athletic Club W 30 35 44 -9 44
9 Deportivo de La Coruña W 30 34 54 -20 31
10 Sevilla W 30 33 46 -13 41
11 Edf Logrono W 30 29 54 -25 21
12 Espanyol W 30 28 44 -16 31
13 FC Levante Badalona 30 28 46 -18 39
14 Alhama 30 23 78 -55 14
15 Eibar W 30 18 47 -29 28
16 Levante W 30 18 62 -44 9
Primera División Femenina Spain. Primera División Femenina Predictions