The model missed the final outcome (Hougang United win 1–2).
The model had projected Tanjong Pagar at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 draw Hougang United ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 0-2, 1-3, 0-1 1-2 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanjong Pagar | 41.8% | 14.2% | +27.6 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 25.7% | 17.7% | +8.0 pp | Model Higher |
| Hougang United | 32.6% | 68.2% | -35.6 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Hougang United's win probability at 68.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 35.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Hougang United win 1–2.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Tanjong Pagar by 35.6 percentage points (77.4% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
May 05, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Tanjong Pagar 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Hougang United 32.6%
- xG · Tanjong Pagar 1.45 — Hougang United 1.25
-
May 05, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Tanjong Pagar 6.55 · Draw 5.24 · Hougang United 1.36
- Implied 1X2 · Tanjong Pagar 14.2% · Draw 17.7% · Hougang United 68.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 05, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Tanjong Pagar 6.55 · Draw 5.24 · Hougang United 1.36
- Implied 1X2 · Tanjong Pagar 14.2% · Draw 17.7% · Hougang United 68.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 05, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Hougang United win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (36 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Home United | 20 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 51 |
| 2 | Albirex Niigata S | 21 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 47 |
| 3 | Tampines Rovers | 20 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 46 |
| 4 | Balestier Khalsa | 21 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 35 |
| 5 | Geylang International | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 24 |
| 6 | Hougang United | 20 | 7 | 0 | 13 | 21 |
| 7 | Young Lions | 21 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 9 |
| 8 | Tanjong Pagar | 20 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Home United | 20 | 68 | 11 | +57 | 51 |
| 2 | Tampines Rovers | 20 | 55 | 19 | +36 | 46 |
| 3 | Albirex Niigata S | 21 | 47 | 19 | +28 | 47 |
| 4 | Balestier Khalsa | 21 | 44 | 46 | -2 | 35 |
| 5 | Geylang International | 21 | 29 | 42 | -13 | 24 |
| 6 | Hougang United | 20 | 23 | 39 | -16 | 21 |
| 7 | Young Lions | 21 | 15 | 58 | -43 | 9 |
| 8 | Tanjong Pagar | 20 | 15 | 62 | -47 | 4 |
