The model missed the final outcome (Balestier Khalsa win 2–3).
The model had projected Geylang International at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Geylang International Balestier Khalsa ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geylang International | 41.8% | 44.3% | -2.5 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 25.7% | 22.1% | +3.6 pp | Aligned |
| Balestier Khalsa | 32.6% | 33.6% | -1.1 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Balestier Khalsa win 2–3.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Geylang International; match finished Balestier Khalsa
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was Balestier Khalsa win 2–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Geylang International 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Balestier Khalsa 32.6%
- xG · Geylang International 1.45 — Balestier Khalsa 1.25
-
May 03, 2026 · 11:20 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Geylang International 2.12 · Draw 4.25 · Balestier Khalsa 2.79
- Implied 1X2 · Geylang International 44.3% · Draw 22.1% · Balestier Khalsa 33.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 03, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Geylang International 2.12 · Draw 4.25 · Balestier Khalsa 2.79
- Implied 1X2 · Geylang International 44.3% · Draw 22.1% · Balestier Khalsa 33.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 02, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Balestier Khalsa win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Home United | 20 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 51 |
| 2 | Albirex Niigata S | 21 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 47 |
| 3 | Tampines Rovers | 20 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 46 |
| 4 | Balestier Khalsa | 21 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 35 |
| 5 | Geylang International | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 24 |
| 6 | Hougang United | 20 | 7 | 0 | 13 | 21 |
| 7 | Young Lions | 21 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 9 |
| 8 | Tanjong Pagar | 20 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Home United | 20 | 68 | 11 | +57 | 51 |
| 2 | Tampines Rovers | 20 | 55 | 19 | +36 | 46 |
| 3 | Albirex Niigata S | 21 | 47 | 19 | +28 | 47 |
| 4 | Balestier Khalsa | 21 | 44 | 46 | -2 | 35 |
| 5 | Geylang International | 21 | 29 | 42 | -13 | 24 |
| 6 | Hougang United | 20 | 23 | 39 | -16 | 21 |
| 7 | Young Lions | 21 | 15 | 58 | -43 | 9 |
| 8 | Tanjong Pagar | 20 | 15 | 62 | -47 | 4 |
