The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Lyon W at 79.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Lyon W Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 0-2, 0-3, 0-1, 1-2, 1-3 2-2 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.46) — 4 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Lyon W; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Strasbourg W 0.71 — Lyon W 2.75
-
Mar 28, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
45/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
- High xG deviation from league baseline (104%+)
Evidence
★★★★★
- Strong model lean
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
47/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Strasbourg W 2–2 Lyon W
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Feminine Division 1 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon W | 22 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 60 |
| 2 | Paris FC W | 22 | 15 | 3 | 4 | 48 |
| 3 | Paris Saint Germain W | 22 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 47 |
| 4 | Nantes W | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 41 |
| 5 | FC Fleury 91 W | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 33 |
| 6 | Dijon W | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 33 |
| 7 | Strasbourg W | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 26 |
| 8 | Le Havre W | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 21 |
| 9 | Marseille W | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 19 |
| 10 | Montpellier W | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 15 |
| 11 | Lens W | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 15 |
| 12 | Saint-Étienne W | 22 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 13 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon W | 22 | 76 | 11 | +65 | 60 |
| 2 | Paris Saint Germain W | 22 | 48 | 26 | +22 | 47 |
| 3 | Paris FC W | 22 | 46 | 16 | +30 | 48 |
| 4 | Nantes W | 22 | 42 | 34 | +8 | 41 |
| 5 | Montpellier W | 22 | 28 | 45 | -17 | 15 |
| 6 | FC Fleury 91 W | 22 | 27 | 21 | +6 | 33 |
| 7 | Strasbourg W | 22 | 26 | 38 | -12 | 26 |
| 8 | Marseille W | 22 | 26 | 44 | -18 | 19 |
| 9 | Le Havre W | 22 | 25 | 45 | -20 | 21 |
| 10 | Dijon W | 22 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 33 |
| 11 | Lens W | 22 | 20 | 50 | -30 | 15 |
| 12 | Saint-Étienne W | 22 | 11 | 38 | -27 | 13 |
