Predictions / Football / Switzerland. 1. Liga Promotion / Kreuzlingen vs Lugano II

Prediction Audit: Kreuzlingen vs Lugano II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kreuzlingen Kreuzlingen
May 30, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 82%
Lugano II Lugano II

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Kreuzlingen at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Kreuzlingen Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Kreuzlingen -4.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Kreuzlingen 41.8% 45.7% -4.0 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 23.9% +1.8 pp Aligned
Lugano II 32.6% 30.4% +2.2 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • 1X2: model leaned Kreuzlingen; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 30, 2026 · 18:54 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Kreuzlingen 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Lugano II 32.6%
    • xG · Kreuzlingen 1.45 — Lugano II 1.25
  2. May 30, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Kreuzlingen 1.94 · Draw 3.71 · Lugano II 2.92
    • Implied 1X2 · Kreuzlingen 45.7% · Draw 23.9% · Lugano II 30.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 30, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Kreuzlingen 1.94 · Draw 3.71 · Lugano II 2.92
    • Implied 1X2 · Kreuzlingen 45.7% · Draw 23.9% · Lugano II 30.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 30, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 80/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 18:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1484391

Closing Odds 1.94
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Kreuzlingen 1–1 Lugano II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 1. Liga Promotion
  • Fixture: Kreuzlingen vs Lugano II
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-30 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Kreuzlingen 1.45 — Lugano II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 50.8% · Implied: 31.1% · Probability edge: +19.7 pts · Est. EV: +57.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 49.2% · No 50.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming 1. Liga Promotion Matches Track Kreuzlingen Next Match Prediction Track Lugano II Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Kreuzlingen & Lugano II!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
1. Liga Promotion 1. Liga Promotion — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 SC Kriens 34 25 4 5 79
2 Brühl 34 22 6 6 72
3 Biel-Bienne 34 19 7 8 64
4 Basel II 34 17 8 9 59
5 Bavois 34 17 4 13 55
6 Young Boys II 34 15 9 10 54
7 FC Schaffhausen 34 16 5 13 53
8 Bulle 34 15 6 13 51
9 Cham 34 14 8 12 50
10 Grand-Saconnex 34 11 10 13 43
11 Zürich II 34 11 8 15 41
12 Breitenrain 34 11 8 15 41
13 Luzern II 34 10 10 14 40
14 Kreuzlingen 34 8 13 13 37
15 Lugano II 34 8 12 14 36
16 Paradiso 34 8 11 15 35
17 Lausanne Sport II 34 9 4 21 31
18 Vevey Sports 34 1 5 28 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 SC Kriens 34 100 43 +57 79
2 Brühl 34 89 46 +43 72
3 Luzern II 34 80 83 -3 40
4 Biel-Bienne 34 78 46 +32 64
5 Grand-Saconnex 34 71 69 +2 43
6 Bulle 34 70 64 +6 51
7 Young Boys II 34 66 52 +14 54
8 Basel II 34 65 48 +17 59
9 Bavois 34 64 53 +11 55
10 Cham 34 62 61 +1 50
11 Lausanne Sport II 34 60 84 -24 31
12 Zürich II 34 59 62 -3 41
13 FC Schaffhausen 34 51 46 +5 53
14 Paradiso 34 51 65 -14 35
15 Breitenrain 34 47 51 -4 41
16 Lugano II 34 45 75 -30 36
17 Kreuzlingen 34 43 66 -23 37
18 Vevey Sports 34 28 115 -87 2
1. Liga Promotion Switzerland. 1. Liga Promotion Predictions