Predictions / Football / Switzerland. 1. Liga Promotion / SC Kriens vs Bavois

Prediction Audit: SC Kriens vs Bavois Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

SC Kriens SC Kriens
May 30, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 80%
Bavois Bavois

AI correctly predicted the SC Kriens win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 SC Kriens SC Kriens ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-2, 3-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices SC Kriens higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: SC Kriens -18.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
SC Kriens 41.8% 60.1% -18.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 19.1% +6.6 pp Model Higher
Bavois 32.6% 20.9% +11.7 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates SC Kriens's win probability at 60.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 18.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (SC Kriens win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about SC Kriens than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced SC Kriens higher (60.1% vs model 41.8%, 18.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (SC Kriens win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 30, 2026 · 18:51 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · SC Kriens 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Bavois 32.6%
    • xG · SC Kriens 1.45 — Bavois 1.25
  2. May 30, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · SC Kriens 1.49 · Draw 4.51 · Bavois 4.19
    • Implied 1X2 · SC Kriens 59.3% · Draw 19.6% · Bavois 21.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 30, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · SC Kriens 1.47 · Draw 4.63 · Bavois 4.23
    • Implied 1X2 · SC Kriens 60.1% · Draw 19.1% · Bavois 20.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 30, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result SC Kriens win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (18 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 8/100
Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 05:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1555718

Closing Odds 1.47
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result SC Kriens win · SC Kriens 2–1 Bavois
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 1. Liga Promotion
  • Fixture: SC Kriens vs Bavois
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-30 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): SC Kriens 1.45 — Bavois 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 26.1% · Over 2.5 73.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 82.3% · No 17.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 82.3% · No 17.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (8.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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1. Liga Promotion 1. Liga Promotion — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 SC Kriens 34 25 4 5 79
2 Brühl 34 22 6 6 72
3 Biel-Bienne 34 19 7 8 64
4 Basel II 34 17 8 9 59
5 Bavois 34 17 4 13 55
6 Young Boys II 34 15 9 10 54
7 FC Schaffhausen 34 16 5 13 53
8 Bulle 34 15 6 13 51
9 Cham 34 14 8 12 50
10 Grand-Saconnex 34 11 10 13 43
11 Zürich II 34 11 8 15 41
12 Breitenrain 34 11 8 15 41
13 Luzern II 34 10 10 14 40
14 Kreuzlingen 34 8 13 13 37
15 Lugano II 34 8 12 14 36
16 Paradiso 34 8 11 15 35
17 Lausanne Sport II 34 9 4 21 31
18 Vevey Sports 34 1 5 28 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 SC Kriens 34 100 43 +57 79
2 Brühl 34 89 46 +43 72
3 Luzern II 34 80 83 -3 40
4 Biel-Bienne 34 78 46 +32 64
5 Grand-Saconnex 34 71 69 +2 43
6 Bulle 34 70 64 +6 51
7 Young Boys II 34 66 52 +14 54
8 Basel II 34 65 48 +17 59
9 Bavois 34 64 53 +11 55
10 Cham 34 62 61 +1 50
11 Lausanne Sport II 34 60 84 -24 31
12 Zürich II 34 59 62 -3 41
13 FC Schaffhausen 34 51 46 +5 53
14 Paradiso 34 51 65 -14 35
15 Breitenrain 34 47 51 -4 41
16 Lugano II 34 45 75 -30 36
17 Kreuzlingen 34 43 66 -23 37
18 Vevey Sports 34 28 115 -87 2
1. Liga Promotion Switzerland. 1. Liga Promotion Predictions