Predictions / Football / Switzerland. AXA Women’s Super League / Thun vs Rapperswil Jona

Prediction Audit: Thun vs Rapperswil Jona Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Thun Thun
Apr 04, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 70%
Rapperswil Jona Rapperswil Jona

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Thun at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Thun Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Thun; match finished Draw
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • xG · Thun 1.45 — Rapperswil Jona 1.25
  2. Apr 04, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 21:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1767631

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Thun 2–2 Rapperswil Jona
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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AXA Women’s Super League AXA Women’s Super League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Servette Chênois W 18 15 2 1 47
2 Young Boys W 18 11 3 4 36
3 Basel W 18 10 5 3 35
4 Grasshopper W 18 10 3 5 33
5 Zürich W 18 8 5 5 29
6 St. Gallen W 18 7 5 6 26
7 Rapperswil Jona 18 3 7 8 16
8 Aarau 18 2 5 11 11
9 Luzern W 18 2 4 12 10
10 Thun 18 1 3 14 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Servette Chênois W 18 42 5 +37 47
2 Zürich W 18 33 19 +14 29
3 Grasshopper W 18 33 22 +11 33
4 Young Boys W 18 32 13 +19 36
5 St. Gallen W 18 25 28 -3 26
6 Basel W 18 23 13 +10 35
7 Luzern W 18 21 50 -29 10
8 Rapperswil Jona 18 19 30 -11 16
9 Thun 18 16 47 -31 6
10 Aarau 18 11 28 -17 11
AXA Women’s Super League Switzerland. AXA Women’s Super League Predictions