Predictions / Football / Switzerland. 1. Liga Promotion / Basel II vs Vevey Sports

Prediction Audit: Basel II vs Vevey Sports Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Basel II Basel II
May 23, 2026 - 14:00
3 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 46%
Vevey Sports Vevey Sports

AI correctly predicted the Basel II win.

The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Basel II Basel II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 3-1, 2-0, 1-1, 3-0 3-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Basel II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Basel II -48.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Basel II 41.8% 89.8% -48.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 6.2% +19.5 pp Model Edge
Vevey Sports 32.6% 4.0% +28.6 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Basel II's win probability at 89.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 48.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Basel II win 3–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 3–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Basel II higher (89.8% vs model 41.8%, 48.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Basel II win 3–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 23, 2026 · 18:55 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Basel II 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Vevey Sports 32.6%
    • xG · Basel II 1.45 — Vevey Sports 1.25
  2. May 23, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Basel II 1.07 · Draw 9.20 · Vevey Sports 12.74
    • Implied 1X2 · Basel II 83.3% · Draw 9.7% · Vevey Sports 7.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 23, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Basel II 1.04 · Draw 15.06 · Vevey Sports 23.47
    • Implied 1X2 · Basel II 89.8% · Draw 6.2% · Vevey Sports 4.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 23, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Basel II win · 3–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 25/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (48 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 7/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 22:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1653956

Closing Odds 1.04
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Basel II win · Basel II 3–0 Vevey Sports
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Basel II; market prices Basel II instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Basel II 1.45 xG vs Vevey Sports 1.25 → Basel II 41.8%
  • Market: Basel II ~89.8% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 26.1% · Over 2.5 73.9%); BTTS No (Yes 54.7% · No 45.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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1. Liga Promotion 1. Liga Promotion — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 SC Kriens 34 25 4 5 79
2 Brühl 34 22 6 6 72
3 Biel-Bienne 34 19 7 8 64
4 Basel II 34 17 8 9 59
5 Bavois 34 17 4 13 55
6 Young Boys II 34 15 9 10 54
7 FC Schaffhausen 34 16 5 13 53
8 Bulle 34 15 6 13 51
9 Cham 34 14 8 12 50
10 Grand-Saconnex 34 11 10 13 43
11 Zürich II 34 11 8 15 41
12 Breitenrain 34 11 8 15 41
13 Luzern II 34 10 10 14 40
14 Kreuzlingen 34 8 13 13 37
15 Lugano II 34 8 12 14 36
16 Paradiso 34 8 11 15 35
17 Lausanne Sport II 34 9 4 21 31
18 Vevey Sports 34 1 5 28 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 SC Kriens 34 100 43 +57 79
2 Brühl 34 89 46 +43 72
3 Luzern II 34 80 83 -3 40
4 Biel-Bienne 34 78 46 +32 64
5 Grand-Saconnex 34 71 69 +2 43
6 Bulle 34 70 64 +6 51
7 Young Boys II 34 66 52 +14 54
8 Basel II 34 65 48 +17 59
9 Bavois 34 64 53 +11 55
10 Cham 34 62 61 +1 50
11 Lausanne Sport II 34 60 84 -24 31
12 Zürich II 34 59 62 -3 41
13 FC Schaffhausen 34 51 46 +5 53
14 Paradiso 34 51 65 -14 35
15 Breitenrain 34 47 51 -4 41
16 Lugano II 34 45 75 -30 36
17 Kreuzlingen 34 43 66 -23 37
18 Vevey Sports 34 28 115 -87 2
1. Liga Promotion Switzerland. 1. Liga Promotion Predictions