Predictions / Football / Switzerland. 1. Liga Promotion / Bavois vs Lausanne Sport II

Prediction Audit: Bavois vs Lausanne Sport II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bavois Bavois
May 09, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 80%
Lausanne Sport II Lausanne Sport II

AI correctly predicted the Bavois win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Bavois Bavois ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-2, 3-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Bavois higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Bavois -11.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Bavois 41.8% 53.6% -11.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 17.5% +8.1 pp Model Higher
Lausanne Sport II 32.6% 28.8% +3.8 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Bavois's win probability at 53.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 11.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Bavois win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Bavois than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Bavois higher (53.7% vs model 41.8%, 11.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Bavois win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Bavois 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Lausanne Sport II 32.6%
    • xG · Bavois 1.45 — Lausanne Sport II 1.25
  2. May 09, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Bavois 1.71 · Draw 5.16 · Lausanne Sport II 3.17
    • Implied 1X2 · Bavois 53.5% · Draw 17.7% · Lausanne Sport II 28.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 09, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Bavois 1.73 · Draw 5.29 · Lausanne Sport II 3.22
    • Implied 1X2 · Bavois 53.6% · Draw 17.5% · Lausanne Sport II 28.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 09, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Bavois win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 40/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 04:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1551139

Closing Odds 1.73
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Bavois win · Bavois 2–1 Lausanne Sport II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 1. Liga Promotion
  • Fixture: Bavois vs Lausanne Sport II
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Bavois 1.45 — Lausanne Sport II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 36.1% · Implied: 30.8% · Probability edge: +5.3 pts · Est. EV: +12.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 63.9% · No 36.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (8.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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1. Liga Promotion 1. Liga Promotion — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 SC Kriens 34 25 4 5 79
2 Brühl 34 22 6 6 72
3 Biel-Bienne 34 19 7 8 64
4 Basel II 34 17 8 9 59
5 Bavois 34 17 4 13 55
6 Young Boys II 34 15 9 10 54
7 FC Schaffhausen 34 16 5 13 53
8 Bulle 34 15 6 13 51
9 Cham 34 14 8 12 50
10 Grand-Saconnex 34 11 10 13 43
11 Zürich II 34 11 8 15 41
12 Breitenrain 34 11 8 15 41
13 Luzern II 34 10 10 14 40
14 Kreuzlingen 34 8 13 13 37
15 Lugano II 34 8 12 14 36
16 Paradiso 34 8 11 15 35
17 Lausanne Sport II 34 9 4 21 31
18 Vevey Sports 34 1 5 28 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 SC Kriens 34 100 43 +57 79
2 Brühl 34 89 46 +43 72
3 Luzern II 34 80 83 -3 40
4 Biel-Bienne 34 78 46 +32 64
5 Grand-Saconnex 34 71 69 +2 43
6 Bulle 34 70 64 +6 51
7 Young Boys II 34 66 52 +14 54
8 Basel II 34 65 48 +17 59
9 Bavois 34 64 53 +11 55
10 Cham 34 62 61 +1 50
11 Lausanne Sport II 34 60 84 -24 31
12 Zürich II 34 59 62 -3 41
13 FC Schaffhausen 34 51 46 +5 53
14 Paradiso 34 51 65 -14 35
15 Breitenrain 34 47 51 -4 41
16 Lugano II 34 45 75 -30 36
17 Kreuzlingen 34 43 66 -23 37
18 Vevey Sports 34 28 115 -87 2
1. Liga Promotion Switzerland. 1. Liga Promotion Predictions