Predictions / Football / Switzerland. 1. Liga Promotion / Lugano II vs Grand-Saconnex

Prediction Audit: Lugano II vs Grand-Saconnex Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Lugano II Lugano II
May 09, 2026 - 14:30
0 1.45
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 42%
Grand-Saconnex Grand-Saconnex

The model missed the final outcome (Grand-Saconnex win 0–3).

The model had projected Lugano II at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Lugano II Grand-Saconnex ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 2-2, 2-1, 1-3 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Grand-Saconnex higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Grand-Saconnex -20.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Lugano II 41.8% 23.7% +18.1 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 23.7% +2.0 pp Aligned
Grand-Saconnex 32.6% 52.6% -20.1 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Grand-Saconnex's win probability at 52.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 20.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Grand-Saconnex win 0–3.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Lugano II; match finished Grand-Saconnex

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Lugano II by 20.1 percentage points (61.8% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Lugano II 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Grand-Saconnex 32.6%
    • xG · Lugano II 1.45 — Grand-Saconnex 1.25
  2. May 09, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Lugano II 3.86 · Draw 3.87 · Grand-Saconnex 1.74
    • Implied 1X2 · Lugano II 23.7% · Draw 23.7% · Grand-Saconnex 52.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 09, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Lugano II 3.86 · Draw 3.87 · Grand-Saconnex 1.74
    • Implied 1X2 · Lugano II 23.7% · Draw 23.7% · Grand-Saconnex 52.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 09, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Grand-Saconnex win · 0–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (20 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 15/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 02:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1794624

Closing Odds 1.74
AI Fair Odds 2.39
CLV Pending
Final Result Grand-Saconnex win · Lugano II 0–3 Grand-Saconnex
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 41.8%
  • Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=2)

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 1. Liga Promotion
  • Fixture: Lugano II vs Grand-Saconnex
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Lugano II 1.45 — Grand-Saconnex 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 74.7% · Implied: 63.1% · Probability edge: +11.6 pts · Est. EV: +12.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 66.2% · No 33.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (8.2%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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1. Liga Promotion 1. Liga Promotion — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 SC Kriens 34 25 4 5 79
2 Brühl 34 22 6 6 72
3 Biel-Bienne 34 19 7 8 64
4 Basel II 34 17 8 9 59
5 Bavois 34 17 4 13 55
6 Young Boys II 34 15 9 10 54
7 FC Schaffhausen 34 16 5 13 53
8 Bulle 34 15 6 13 51
9 Cham 34 14 8 12 50
10 Grand-Saconnex 34 11 10 13 43
11 Zürich II 34 11 8 15 41
12 Breitenrain 34 11 8 15 41
13 Luzern II 34 10 10 14 40
14 Kreuzlingen 34 8 13 13 37
15 Lugano II 34 8 12 14 36
16 Paradiso 34 8 11 15 35
17 Lausanne Sport II 34 9 4 21 31
18 Vevey Sports 34 1 5 28 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 SC Kriens 34 100 43 +57 79
2 Brühl 34 89 46 +43 72
3 Luzern II 34 80 83 -3 40
4 Biel-Bienne 34 78 46 +32 64
5 Grand-Saconnex 34 71 69 +2 43
6 Bulle 34 70 64 +6 51
7 Young Boys II 34 66 52 +14 54
8 Basel II 34 65 48 +17 59
9 Bavois 34 64 53 +11 55
10 Cham 34 62 61 +1 50
11 Lausanne Sport II 34 60 84 -24 31
12 Zürich II 34 59 62 -3 41
13 FC Schaffhausen 34 51 46 +5 53
14 Paradiso 34 51 65 -14 35
15 Breitenrain 34 47 51 -4 41
16 Lugano II 34 45 75 -30 36
17 Kreuzlingen 34 43 66 -23 37
18 Vevey Sports 34 28 115 -87 2
1. Liga Promotion Switzerland. 1. Liga Promotion Predictions