Predictions / Football / Austria. Regionalliga - Ost / Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf vs Fach-Donaufeld

Prediction Audit: Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf vs Fach-Donaufeld Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
Jun 03, 2026 - 17:00
2 1.01
0 0.97
xG Accuracy: 58%
Fach-Donaufeld Fach-Donaufeld

The model missed the final outcome (Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf win 2–0).

The model had projected Draw at 34.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 draw Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf -14.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 33.8% 47.8% -14.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 34.5% 23.3% +11.2 pp Model Edge
Fach-Donaufeld 31.7% 28.9% +2.8 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf's win probability at 47.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 14.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf win 2–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.98, 2 goals)
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned draw; match finished Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Draw by 14.0 percentage points (48.5% vs model 34.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 05, 2026 · 18:20 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 33.8% · Draw 34.6% · Fach-Donaufeld 31.6%
    • xG · Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 1.01 — Fach-Donaufeld 0.97
  2. Jun 05, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 1.86 · Draw 3.81 · Fach-Donaufeld 3.08
    • Implied 1X2 · Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 47.8% · Draw 23.3% · Fach-Donaufeld 28.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 05, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 1.86 · Draw 3.81 · Fach-Donaufeld 3.08
    • Implied 1X2 · Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 47.8% · Draw 23.3% · Fach-Donaufeld 28.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 03, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 10/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 06, 2026 · 07:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7310459

Closing Odds 1.86
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf win · Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 2–0 Fach-Donaufeld
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Regionalliga - Ost
  • Fixture: Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf vs Fach-Donaufeld
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-05 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 34.6% · Away 31.6%
  • xG (showing): Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 1.01 — Fach-Donaufeld 0.97 (total xG ≈ 1.98)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 68.2% · Implied: 35.2% · Probability edge: +33.0 pts · Est. EV: +91.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 41.2% · No 58.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (13.9%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - Ost Regionalliga - Ost — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Parndorf 32 18 8 6 62
2 Gloggnitz 32 18 8 6 62
3 Krems / Rehberg 32 17 7 8 58
4 Leobendorf 32 18 3 11 57
5 Oberwart 32 17 5 10 56
6 SV Horn 32 14 9 9 51
7 Traiskirchen 32 14 8 10 50
8 Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 32 13 10 9 49
9 Fach-Donaufeld 32 13 8 11 47
10 Wiener SC 32 13 7 12 46
11 Wiener Viktoria 32 13 6 13 45
12 Donau 32 12 8 12 44
13 Favoritner AC 32 12 3 17 39
14 Union Mauer 32 10 7 15 37
15 Neusiedl 32 8 5 19 29
16 Retz 32 4 8 20 20
17 TWL Elektra 32 2 2 28 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Oberwart 32 73 42 +31 56
2 Traiskirchen 32 70 52 +18 50
3 Krems / Rehberg 32 61 33 +28 58
4 Parndorf 32 58 34 +24 62
5 Gloggnitz 32 58 45 +13 62
6 SV Horn 32 57 35 +22 51
7 Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 32 55 37 +18 49
8 Wiener SC 32 54 52 +2 46
9 Fach-Donaufeld 32 51 44 +7 47
10 Wiener Viktoria 32 50 51 -1 45
11 Donau 32 50 57 -7 44
12 Leobendorf 32 48 34 +14 57
13 Neusiedl 32 46 72 -26 29
14 Favoritner AC 32 44 52 -8 39
15 Union Mauer 32 32 47 -15 37
16 Retz 32 25 64 -39 20
17 TWL Elektra 32 21 102 -81 8
Regionalliga - Ost Austria. Regionalliga - Ost Predictions