Predictions / Football / Austria. Regionalliga - Ost / Neusiedl vs Wiener Viktoria

Prediction Audit: Neusiedl vs Wiener Viktoria Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Neusiedl Neusiedl
Jun 03, 2026 - 17:30
2 1.10
5 0.88
xG Accuracy: 25%
Wiener Viktoria Wiener Viktoria

The model missed the final outcome (Wiener Viktoria win 2–5).

The model had projected Neusiedl at 38.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Neusiedl Wiener Viktoria ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-5 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Wiener Viktoria higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Wiener Viktoria -17.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Neusiedl 38.6% 34.6% +4.0 pp Aligned
Draw 34.2% 20.5% +13.8 pp Model Edge
Wiener Viktoria 27.1% 44.9% -17.8 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Wiener Viktoria's win probability at 44.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 27.1%, a difference of 17.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Wiener Viktoria win 2–5.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Wiener Viktoria than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Neusiedl by 17.8 percentage points (56.4% vs model 38.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 05, 2026 · 18:20 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Neusiedl 38.6% · Draw 34.3% · Wiener Viktoria 27.1%
    • xG · Neusiedl 1.10 — Wiener Viktoria 0.88
  2. Jun 05, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Neusiedl 2.57 · Draw 4.34 · Wiener Viktoria 1.98
    • Implied 1X2 · Neusiedl 34.6% · Draw 20.5% · Wiener Viktoria 44.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 05, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Neusiedl 2.57 · Draw 4.34 · Wiener Viktoria 1.98
    • Implied 1X2 · Neusiedl 34.6% · Draw 20.5% · Wiener Viktoria 44.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 03, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Wiener Viktoria win · 2–5
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (18 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 3/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 22:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2541552

Closing Odds 1.98
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Wiener Viktoria win · Neusiedl 2–5 Wiener Viktoria
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Regionalliga - Ost
  • Fixture: Neusiedl vs Wiener Viktoria
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-05 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.6% · Draw 34.3% · Away 27.1%
  • xG (showing): Neusiedl 1.1 — Wiener Viktoria 0.88 (total xG ≈ 1.98)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 68.2% · Implied: 27.4% · Probability edge: +40.8 pts · Est. EV: +155.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 40.8% · No 59.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (15.2%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - Ost Regionalliga - Ost — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Parndorf 32 18 8 6 62
2 Gloggnitz 32 18 8 6 62
3 Krems / Rehberg 32 17 7 8 58
4 Leobendorf 32 18 3 11 57
5 Oberwart 32 17 5 10 56
6 SV Horn 32 14 9 9 51
7 Traiskirchen 32 14 8 10 50
8 Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 32 13 10 9 49
9 Fach-Donaufeld 32 13 8 11 47
10 Wiener SC 32 13 7 12 46
11 Wiener Viktoria 32 13 6 13 45
12 Donau 32 12 8 12 44
13 Favoritner AC 32 12 3 17 39
14 Union Mauer 32 10 7 15 37
15 Neusiedl 32 8 5 19 29
16 Retz 32 4 8 20 20
17 TWL Elektra 32 2 2 28 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Oberwart 32 73 42 +31 56
2 Traiskirchen 32 70 52 +18 50
3 Krems / Rehberg 32 61 33 +28 58
4 Parndorf 32 58 34 +24 62
5 Gloggnitz 32 58 45 +13 62
6 SV Horn 32 57 35 +22 51
7 Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 32 55 37 +18 49
8 Wiener SC 32 54 52 +2 46
9 Fach-Donaufeld 32 51 44 +7 47
10 Wiener Viktoria 32 50 51 -1 45
11 Donau 32 50 57 -7 44
12 Leobendorf 32 48 34 +14 57
13 Neusiedl 32 46 72 -26 29
14 Favoritner AC 32 44 52 -8 39
15 Union Mauer 32 32 47 -15 37
16 Retz 32 25 64 -39 20
17 TWL Elektra 32 21 102 -81 8
Regionalliga - Ost Austria. Regionalliga - Ost Predictions