Predictions / Football / Austria. Regionalliga - Ost / Fach-Donaufeld vs TWL Elektra

Prediction Audit: Fach-Donaufeld vs TWL Elektra Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Fach-Donaufeld Fach-Donaufeld
May 29, 2026 - 16:00
4 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 40%
TWL Elektra TWL Elektra

AI correctly predicted the Fach-Donaufeld win.

The match finished 4–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Fach-Donaufeld Fach-Donaufeld ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-0, 2-1, 1-0, 1-1, 3-0 4-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Fach-Donaufeld higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Fach-Donaufeld -46.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Fach-Donaufeld 41.8% 88.0% -46.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 6.1% +19.6 pp Model Edge
TWL Elektra 32.6% 5.8% +26.7 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Fach-Donaufeld's win probability at 88.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 46.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Fach-Donaufeld win 4–2).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 6 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Fach-Donaufeld higher (88.1% vs model 41.8%, 46.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Fach-Donaufeld win 4–2).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 30, 2026 · 18:42 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Fach-Donaufeld 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · TWL Elektra 32.6%
    • xG · Fach-Donaufeld 1.45 — TWL Elektra 1.25
  2. May 30, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Fach-Donaufeld 1.03 · Draw 14.81 · TWL Elektra 15.50
    • Implied 1X2 · Fach-Donaufeld 88.0% · Draw 6.1% · TWL Elektra 5.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 30, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Fach-Donaufeld 1.03 · Draw 14.81 · TWL Elektra 15.50
    • Implied 1X2 · Fach-Donaufeld 88.0% · Draw 6.1% · TWL Elektra 5.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 29, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Fach-Donaufeld win · 4–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 26/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (46 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 7/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1460302

Closing Odds 1.03
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Fach-Donaufeld win · Fach-Donaufeld 4–2 TWL Elektra
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Fach-Donaufeld; market prices Fach-Donaufeld instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Fach-Donaufeld 1.45 xG vs TWL Elektra 1.25 → Fach-Donaufeld 41.8%
  • Market: Fach-Donaufeld ~88.0% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 35.9% · Over 2.5 64.1%); BTTS No (Yes 29.3% · No 70.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - Ost Regionalliga - Ost — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Parndorf 32 18 8 6 62
2 Gloggnitz 32 18 8 6 62
3 Krems / Rehberg 32 17 7 8 58
4 Leobendorf 32 18 3 11 57
5 Oberwart 32 17 5 10 56
6 SV Horn 32 14 9 9 51
7 Traiskirchen 32 14 8 10 50
8 Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 32 13 10 9 49
9 Fach-Donaufeld 32 13 8 11 47
10 Wiener SC 32 13 7 12 46
11 Wiener Viktoria 32 13 6 13 45
12 Donau 32 12 8 12 44
13 Favoritner AC 32 12 3 17 39
14 Union Mauer 32 10 7 15 37
15 Neusiedl 32 8 5 19 29
16 Retz 32 4 8 20 20
17 TWL Elektra 32 2 2 28 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Oberwart 32 73 42 +31 56
2 Traiskirchen 32 70 52 +18 50
3 Krems / Rehberg 32 61 33 +28 58
4 Parndorf 32 58 34 +24 62
5 Gloggnitz 32 58 45 +13 62
6 SV Horn 32 57 35 +22 51
7 Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 32 55 37 +18 49
8 Wiener SC 32 54 52 +2 46
9 Fach-Donaufeld 32 51 44 +7 47
10 Wiener Viktoria 32 50 51 -1 45
11 Donau 32 50 57 -7 44
12 Leobendorf 32 48 34 +14 57
13 Neusiedl 32 46 72 -26 29
14 Favoritner AC 32 44 52 -8 39
15 Union Mauer 32 32 47 -15 37
16 Retz 32 25 64 -39 20
17 TWL Elektra 32 21 102 -81 8
Regionalliga - Ost Austria. Regionalliga - Ost Predictions