Predictions / Football / Austria. Regionalliga - Ost / SV Horn vs Fach-Donaufeld

Prediction Audit: SV Horn vs Fach-Donaufeld Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

SV Horn SV Horn
May 22, 2026 - 17:30
0 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 72%
Fach-Donaufeld Fach-Donaufeld

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected SV Horn at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 SV Horn Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 0-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Fach-Donaufeld +3.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
SV Horn 41.8% 44.9% -3.1 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 26.1% -0.5 pp Aligned
Fach-Donaufeld 32.6% 29.0% +3.5 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned SV Horn; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 22, 2026 · 18:34 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · SV Horn 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Fach-Donaufeld 32.6%
    • xG · SV Horn 1.45 — Fach-Donaufeld 1.25
  2. May 22, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · SV Horn 1.98 · Draw 3.40 · Fach-Donaufeld 3.06
    • Implied 1X2 · SV Horn 44.9% · Draw 26.1% · Fach-Donaufeld 29.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 22, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · SV Horn 1.98 · Draw 3.40 · Fach-Donaufeld 3.06
    • Implied 1X2 · SV Horn 44.9% · Draw 26.1% · Fach-Donaufeld 29.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 22, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 82/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 16:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1475057

Closing Odds 3.06
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · SV Horn 0–0 Fach-Donaufeld
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Regionalliga - Ost
  • Fixture: SV Horn vs Fach-Donaufeld
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-22 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): SV Horn 1.45 — Fach-Donaufeld 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 72.4% · Implied: 42.6% · Probability edge: +29.8 pts · Est. EV: +59.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 27.6% · No 72.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-0 (16.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - Ost Regionalliga - Ost — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Parndorf 32 18 8 6 62
2 Gloggnitz 32 18 8 6 62
3 Krems / Rehberg 32 17 7 8 58
4 Leobendorf 32 18 3 11 57
5 Oberwart 32 17 5 10 56
6 SV Horn 32 14 9 9 51
7 Traiskirchen 32 14 8 10 50
8 Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 32 13 10 9 49
9 Fach-Donaufeld 32 13 8 11 47
10 Wiener SC 32 13 7 12 46
11 Wiener Viktoria 32 13 6 13 45
12 Donau 32 12 8 12 44
13 Favoritner AC 32 12 3 17 39
14 Union Mauer 32 10 7 15 37
15 Neusiedl 32 8 5 19 29
16 Retz 32 4 8 20 20
17 TWL Elektra 32 2 2 28 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Oberwart 32 73 42 +31 56
2 Traiskirchen 32 70 52 +18 50
3 Krems / Rehberg 32 61 33 +28 58
4 Parndorf 32 58 34 +24 62
5 Gloggnitz 32 58 45 +13 62
6 SV Horn 32 57 35 +22 51
7 Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 32 55 37 +18 49
8 Wiener SC 32 54 52 +2 46
9 Fach-Donaufeld 32 51 44 +7 47
10 Wiener Viktoria 32 50 51 -1 45
11 Donau 32 50 57 -7 44
12 Leobendorf 32 48 34 +14 57
13 Neusiedl 32 46 72 -26 29
14 Favoritner AC 32 44 52 -8 39
15 Union Mauer 32 32 47 -15 37
16 Retz 32 25 64 -39 20
17 TWL Elektra 32 21 102 -81 8
Regionalliga - Ost Austria. Regionalliga - Ost Predictions