Predictions / Football / Austria. Regionalliga - Ost / Union Mauer vs Leobendorf

Prediction Audit: Union Mauer vs Leobendorf Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Union Mauer Union Mauer
May 15, 2026 - 17:00
0 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
Leobendorf Leobendorf

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Union Mauer at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Union Mauer Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 0-0, 1-1, 0-2, 1-0 0-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Union Mauer considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Union Mauer +12.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Union Mauer 41.8% 29.8% +12.0 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 26.9% -1.2 pp Aligned
Leobendorf 32.6% 43.4% -10.8 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Union Mauer's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 29.8%, a difference of 12.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Union Mauer.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Union Mauer; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Union Mauer by 12.0 percentage points (29.8% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 16, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Union Mauer 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Leobendorf 32.6%
    • xG · Union Mauer 1.45 — Leobendorf 1.25
  2. May 16, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Union Mauer 2.99 · Draw 3.31 · Leobendorf 2.05
    • Implied 1X2 · Union Mauer 29.8% · Draw 26.9% · Leobendorf 43.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 16, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Union Mauer 2.99 · Draw 3.31 · Leobendorf 2.05
    • Implied 1X2 · Union Mauer 29.8% · Draw 26.9% · Leobendorf 43.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 15, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 13/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 23:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1657452

Closing Odds 2.99
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Union Mauer 0–0 Leobendorf
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Regionalliga - Ost
  • Fixture: Union Mauer vs Leobendorf
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Union Mauer 1.45 — Leobendorf 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 79.7% · Implied: 44.0% · Probability edge: +35.7 pts · Est. EV: +67.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 20.3% · No 79.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (21.2%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - Ost Regionalliga - Ost — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Parndorf 32 18 8 6 62
2 Gloggnitz 32 18 8 6 62
3 Krems / Rehberg 32 17 7 8 58
4 Leobendorf 32 18 3 11 57
5 Oberwart 32 17 5 10 56
6 SV Horn 32 14 9 9 51
7 Traiskirchen 32 14 8 10 50
8 Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 32 13 10 9 49
9 Fach-Donaufeld 32 13 8 11 47
10 Wiener SC 32 13 7 12 46
11 Wiener Viktoria 32 13 6 13 45
12 Donau 32 12 8 12 44
13 Favoritner AC 32 12 3 17 39
14 Union Mauer 32 10 7 15 37
15 Neusiedl 32 8 5 19 29
16 Retz 32 4 8 20 20
17 TWL Elektra 32 2 2 28 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Oberwart 32 73 42 +31 56
2 Traiskirchen 32 70 52 +18 50
3 Krems / Rehberg 32 61 33 +28 58
4 Parndorf 32 58 34 +24 62
5 Gloggnitz 32 58 45 +13 62
6 SV Horn 32 57 35 +22 51
7 Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 32 55 37 +18 49
8 Wiener SC 32 54 52 +2 46
9 Fach-Donaufeld 32 51 44 +7 47
10 Wiener Viktoria 32 50 51 -1 45
11 Donau 32 50 57 -7 44
12 Leobendorf 32 48 34 +14 57
13 Neusiedl 32 46 72 -26 29
14 Favoritner AC 32 44 52 -8 39
15 Union Mauer 32 32 47 -15 37
16 Retz 32 25 64 -39 20
17 TWL Elektra 32 21 102 -81 8
Regionalliga - Ost Austria. Regionalliga - Ost Predictions