Predictions / Football / Austria. Regionalliga - Ost / Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf vs Traiskirchen

Prediction Audit: Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf vs Traiskirchen Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
May 08, 2026 - 17:00
0 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 55%
Traiskirchen Traiskirchen

AI correctly predicted the Draw.

The match finished 0–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 draw Draw ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-2 0-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf -6.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 41.8% 48.5% -6.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 23.6% +2.1 pp Aligned
Traiskirchen 32.6% 27.9% +4.7 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf's win probability at 48.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 6.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Draw 0–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf higher (48.5% vs model 41.8%, 6.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Draw 0–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 08, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Traiskirchen 32.6%
    • xG · Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 1.45 — Traiskirchen 1.25
  2. May 08, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 1.83 · Draw 3.77 · Traiskirchen 3.18
    • Implied 1X2 · Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 48.5% · Draw 23.6% · Traiskirchen 27.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 08, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 1.83 · Draw 3.77 · Traiskirchen 3.18
    • Implied 1X2 · Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 48.5% · Draw 23.6% · Traiskirchen 27.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 08, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 66/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 19:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1490199

Closing Odds 1.83
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 0–0 Traiskirchen
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Regionalliga - Ost
  • Fixture: Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf vs Traiskirchen
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-08 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 1.45 — Traiskirchen 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 65.4% · Implied: 34.1% · Probability edge: +31.3 pts · Est. EV: +79.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 34.6% · No 65.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (13.7%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - Ost Regionalliga - Ost — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Parndorf 32 18 8 6 62
2 Gloggnitz 32 18 8 6 62
3 Krems / Rehberg 32 17 7 8 58
4 Leobendorf 32 18 3 11 57
5 Oberwart 32 17 5 10 56
6 SV Horn 32 14 9 9 51
7 Traiskirchen 32 14 8 10 50
8 Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 32 13 10 9 49
9 Fach-Donaufeld 32 13 8 11 47
10 Wiener SC 32 13 7 12 46
11 Wiener Viktoria 32 13 6 13 45
12 Donau 32 12 8 12 44
13 Favoritner AC 32 12 3 17 39
14 Union Mauer 32 10 7 15 37
15 Neusiedl 32 8 5 19 29
16 Retz 32 4 8 20 20
17 TWL Elektra 32 2 2 28 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Oberwart 32 73 42 +31 56
2 Traiskirchen 32 70 52 +18 50
3 Krems / Rehberg 32 61 33 +28 58
4 Parndorf 32 58 34 +24 62
5 Gloggnitz 32 58 45 +13 62
6 SV Horn 32 57 35 +22 51
7 Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 32 55 37 +18 49
8 Wiener SC 32 54 52 +2 46
9 Fach-Donaufeld 32 51 44 +7 47
10 Wiener Viktoria 32 50 51 -1 45
11 Donau 32 50 57 -7 44
12 Leobendorf 32 48 34 +14 57
13 Neusiedl 32 46 72 -26 29
14 Favoritner AC 32 44 52 -8 39
15 Union Mauer 32 32 47 -15 37
16 Retz 32 25 64 -39 20
17 TWL Elektra 32 21 102 -81 8
Regionalliga - Ost Austria. Regionalliga - Ost Predictions