Predictions / Football / San-Marino. Campionato / Tre Fiori vs Libertas

Prediction Audit: Tre Fiori vs Libertas Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tre Fiori Tre Fiori
Apr 12, 2026 - 13:00
3 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 46%
Libertas Libertas

AI correctly predicted the Tre Fiori win.

The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Tre Fiori Tre Fiori ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Tre Fiori win 3–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • xG · Tre Fiori 1.45 — Libertas 1.25
  2. Apr 12, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Tre Fiori win · 3–0
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 03:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3022444

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Tre Fiori win · Tre Fiori 3–0 Libertas
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Related Predictions

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Campionato Campionato — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tre Fiori 30 22 7 1 73
2 Virtus 30 22 6 2 72
3 Tre Penne 30 21 7 2 70
4 La Fiorita 30 17 11 2 57
5 Folgore 30 16 9 6 57
6 Domagnano 30 14 7 9 49
7 Fiorentino 30 14 4 12 46
8 Cosmos 30 11 9 10 42
9 Juvenes / Dogana 30 9 10 11 37
10 Libertas 30 9 8 13 35
11 Pennarossa 30 8 8 14 32
12 San Giovanni 30 7 10 13 31
13 Faetano 30 6 4 20 22
14 San Marino Academy 30 3 7 20 16
15 Cailungo 30 2 5 23 11
16 Murata 30 1 4 25 -2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Virtus 30 76 20 +56 72
2 Tre Penne 30 71 18 +53 70
3 Folgore 30 67 33 +34 57
4 La Fiorita 30 64 25 +39 57
5 Tre Fiori 30 63 13 +50 73
6 Domagnano 30 59 36 +23 49
7 Fiorentino 30 37 42 -5 46
8 Juvenes / Dogana 30 36 38 -2 37
9 Libertas 30 32 63 -31 35
10 Cosmos 30 30 23 +7 42
11 Pennarossa 30 29 53 -24 32
12 San Giovanni 30 24 43 -19 31
13 San Marino Academy 30 23 60 -37 16
14 Cailungo 30 23 71 -48 11
15 Faetano 30 22 55 -33 22
16 Murata 30 20 83 -63 -2