1X2 Model EV
- Lean
- Draw
- Model probability
- —
- Market probability
- —
- Difference
- —
- Risk-adjusted EV (P1.5)
- —
No Value Edge
Murata vs Juvenes / Dogana Prediction
Model lean is not a Primary bet — one answer only below.
No Primary Bet
Consensus EV
—
Calculated using a market-adjusted probability. The model probability is partially adjusted toward market expectation to reduce false positives.
Decision Model vs Market Gap
—
Difference between the Decision Model probability and the no-vig market probability for the selected outcome.
Reliability
—
Reliability measures the quality of the prediction signal. It considers: • model validation • market alignment • data quality • bookmaker coverage • market movement consistency It does not represent the probability of winning.
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Prediction Overview
Base Prediction Model
These probabilities are generated from the base xG scoring simulation (Poisson model). They show the expected match outcome distribution before decision-layer calibration.
These probabilities are generated from the base xG scoring simulation (Poisson model). They show the expected match outcome distribution before decision-layer calibration.
Raw match outcome probabilities from the xG-based scoring model.
Why Is The Bet Blocked?
Positive factors
- ✓Model snapshot generated
Risk factors
- ✗Market moved against Murata3.9 → 4.5 · ↑ +15.4%
Market Intelligence
Market drift · Murata · ↑ +15.4%
Breadth
3/4
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +15.4%
William Hill
↑ +8.7%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +6.9%
Move Score
66 (A)
Move Score (0–100) grades how strong a market move is — steam (shortening) or drift (lengthening). A+ · ≥75 with 3+ books reacting — strongest multi-book conviction A · ≥60 with 2+ books — strong multi-book signal B · ≥40 — moderate move; confirmation incomplete C · Below 40, dead/illiquid, or volatile — limited conviction
PhaseMarket drift
StatusStrong drift
CLVWaiting for Close
Ref bookBet365
Market drift on Murata — compare with model probabilities.
Market Decisions (Model vs Market)
Each card compares the model probability with the no-vig (or best available) market price, then shows a risk-adjusted or raw EV.
Positive EV is a pricing signal, not a Primary bet instruction.
Each card compares the model probability with the no-vig (or best available) market price, then shows a risk-adjusted or raw EV. Positive EV is a pricing signal, not a Primary bet instruction.
Over / Under 2.5
- Lean
- Over 2.5
- Model probability (Over)
- 46.9%
- Market probability (Over)
- —
- Difference
- —
- Risk-adjusted EV
- —
No Value Edge
BTTS (Yes)
- Lean
- Yes
- Model probability
- 31.0%
- Market probability
- —
- Difference
- —
- Risk-adjusted EV
- —
No Value Edge
BTTS Yes 31.0%
BTTS No 69.0%
Correct Score
- Top Score
- 0-1
- Model probability (0-1)
- 12.9%
- Market probability (0-1)
- —
- Difference
- —
- EV @ Market Odds
- —
No Value
Top 5 Model Scores
- 0-1 12.9%
- 1-1 11.6%
- 0-2 10.6%
- 1-2 9.6%
- 0-0 7.8%
Match Phase: Upcoming
Decision Lifecycle
Current stage: Market monitoring
-
Prediction Generated
-
Market ComparedEntry 4.5
-
Validation Passed
-
Closing RecordedClosing Waiting Expected before kickoff
-
CLV EvaluatedCLV Pending
Final Verdict
No Primary Bet
Action
Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.
OddsGPT Decision Engine 2.5.0 · Educational framing only · Not personalised advice
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