The model missed the final outcome (Crystal Palace W win 1–3).
The model had projected Birmingham City W at 43.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
C
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Birmingham City W Crystal Palace W ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.72) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Birmingham City W; match finished Crystal Palace W
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was Crystal Palace W win 1–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Birmingham City W 1.49 — Crystal Palace W 1.23
-
Feb 16, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Crystal Palace W win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Crystal Palace W win · Birmingham City W 1–3 Crystal Palace W
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Women's Championship — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham City W | 22 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 44 |
| 2 | Crystal Palace W | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 44 |
| 3 | Charlton Athletic W | 22 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 42 |
| 4 | Bristol City W | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 37 |
| 5 | Southampton W | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 35 |
| 6 | Newcastle United W | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 33 |
| 7 | Nottingham Forest W | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 30 |
| 8 | Sunderland W | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 24 |
| 9 | Ipswich Town W | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 23 |
| 10 | Durham W | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 22 |
| 11 | Sheffield United W | 22 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 18 |
| 12 | Portsmouth W | 22 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 14 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol City W | 22 | 47 | 31 | +16 | 37 |
| 2 | Birmingham City W | 22 | 46 | 24 | +22 | 44 |
| 3 | Crystal Palace W | 22 | 44 | 26 | +18 | 44 |
| 4 | Southampton W | 22 | 44 | 26 | +18 | 35 |
| 5 | Newcastle United W | 22 | 32 | 25 | +7 | 33 |
| 6 | Charlton Athletic W | 22 | 31 | 21 | +10 | 42 |
| 7 | Sunderland W | 22 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 24 |
| 8 | Nottingham Forest W | 22 | 27 | 35 | -8 | 30 |
| 9 | Durham W | 22 | 27 | 35 | -8 | 22 |
| 10 | Ipswich Town W | 22 | 26 | 42 | -16 | 23 |
| 11 | Portsmouth W | 22 | 23 | 53 | -30 | 14 |
| 12 | Sheffield United W | 22 | 21 | 43 | -22 | 18 |
