Predictions / Football / Zambia. Super League / Nchanga Rangers vs Konkola Blades

Prediction Audit: Nchanga Rangers vs Konkola Blades Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Nchanga Rangers Nchanga Rangers
May 23, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 72%
Konkola Blades Konkola Blades

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Nchanga Rangers at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Nchanga Rangers Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 0-0 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Nchanga Rangers; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 23, 2026 · 18:38 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Nchanga Rangers 1.45 — Konkola Blades 1.25
  2. May 23, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1748237

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Nchanga Rangers 0–0 Konkola Blades
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Super League
  • Fixture: Nchanga Rangers vs Konkola Blades
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-23 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Nchanga Rangers 1.45 — Konkola Blades 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 78.3% · Over 2.5 21.7%); BTTS No (Yes 45.7% · No 54.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 45.7% · No 54.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-0 (20.2%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Super League Super League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Power Dynamos 34 23 9 2 78
2 Red Arrows 34 17 12 5 63
3 Man Utd Zambia Academy 34 14 9 11 51
4 Kabwe Warriors 34 14 9 11 51
5 Nchanga Rangers 34 14 8 12 50
6 Green Eagles 34 13 11 10 50
7 Zanaco 34 14 8 12 50
8 Mufulira Wanderers 34 14 7 13 49
9 Konkola Blades 34 11 15 8 48
10 ZESCO United 34 13 8 13 47
11 Kansanshi Dynamos 34 10 13 11 43
12 Green Buffaloes 34 9 14 11 41
13 Nkana 34 9 12 13 39
14 Nkwazi 34 8 13 13 37
15 NAPSA Stars 34 8 12 14 36
16 Mutondo Stars 34 7 14 13 35
17 Prison Leopards 34 7 13 14 34
18 Mines 34 3 9 22 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Power Dynamos 34 53 18 +35 78
2 Red Arrows 34 44 22 +22 63
3 ZESCO United 34 39 30 +9 47
4 Man Utd Zambia Academy 34 35 30 +5 51
5 Konkola Blades 34 32 28 +4 48
6 Nchanga Rangers 34 31 26 +5 50
7 Kabwe Warriors 34 30 25 +5 51
8 Zanaco 34 30 30 0 50
9 Green Eagles 34 29 25 +4 50
10 Kansanshi Dynamos 34 28 26 +2 43
11 Green Buffaloes 34 27 34 -7 41
12 NAPSA Stars 34 25 33 -8 36
13 Prison Leopards 34 25 37 -12 34
14 Nkana 34 23 30 -7 39
15 Mutondo Stars 34 23 34 -11 35
16 Mufulira Wanderers 34 22 25 -3 49
17 Nkwazi 34 21 28 -7 37
18 Mines 34 19 55 -36 18
Super League Zambia. Super League Predictions