AI correctly predicted the Vora win.
The match finished 5–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Vora Vora ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 5-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vora | 41.8% | 73.6% | -31.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 25.7% | 16.0% | +9.7 pp | Model Higher |
| Bylis | 32.6% | 10.4% | +22.1 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Vora's win probability at 73.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 31.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Vora win 5–2).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 7 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Vora higher (73.6% vs model 41.8%, 31.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Vora win 5–2).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
May 10, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Vora 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Bylis 32.6%
- xG · Vora 1.45 — Bylis 1.25
-
May 10, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Vora 1.22 · Draw 5.61 · Bylis 8.61
- Implied 1X2 · Vora 73.6% · Draw 16.0% · Bylis 10.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 10, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Vora 1.22 · Draw 5.61 · Bylis 8.61
- Implied 1X2 · Vora 73.6% · Draw 16.0% · Bylis 10.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 10, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Vora win · 5–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (32 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Superliga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vllaznia Shkodër | 36 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 63 |
| 2 | AF Elbasani | 36 | 17 | 11 | 8 | 62 |
| 3 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 36 | 16 | 9 | 11 | 57 |
| 4 | Dinamo Tirana | 36 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 49 |
| 5 | Partizani | 36 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 48 |
| 6 | Tirana | 36 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 44 |
| 7 | Vora | 36 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 42 |
| 8 | Teuta Durrës | 36 | 9 | 15 | 12 | 42 |
| 9 | Bylis | 36 | 10 | 11 | 15 | 41 |
| 10 | Flamurtari | 36 | 8 | 12 | 16 | 36 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AF Elbasani | 36 | 48 | 37 | +11 | 62 |
| 2 | Dinamo Tirana | 36 | 43 | 33 | +10 | 49 |
| 3 | Vllaznia Shkodër | 36 | 42 | 27 | +15 | 63 |
| 4 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 36 | 42 | 34 | +8 | 57 |
| 5 | Vora | 36 | 39 | 40 | -1 | 42 |
| 6 | Flamurtari | 36 | 39 | 45 | -6 | 36 |
| 7 | Partizani | 36 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 48 |
| 8 | Bylis | 36 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 41 |
| 9 | Tirana | 36 | 36 | 46 | -10 | 44 |
| 10 | Teuta Durrës | 36 | 32 | 37 | -5 | 42 |
