Predictions / Football / Albania. Superliga / Vllaznia Shkodër vs Flamurtari

Prediction Audit: Vllaznia Shkodër vs Flamurtari Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Vllaznia Shkodër Vllaznia Shkodër
May 10, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 61%
Flamurtari Flamurtari

AI correctly predicted the Vllaznia Shkodër win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Vllaznia Shkodër Vllaznia Shkodër ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 2-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Vllaznia Shkodër higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Vllaznia Shkodër -35.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Vllaznia Shkodër 41.8% 77.0% -35.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 15.2% +10.5 pp Model Edge
Flamurtari 32.6% 7.8% +24.7 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Vllaznia Shkodër's win probability at 77.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 35.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Vllaznia Shkodër win 2–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 2–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Vllaznia Shkodër higher (77.0% vs model 41.8%, 35.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Vllaznia Shkodër win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 10, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Vllaznia Shkodër 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Flamurtari 32.6%
    • xG · Vllaznia Shkodër 1.45 — Flamurtari 1.25
  2. May 10, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Vllaznia Shkodër 1.24 · Draw 4.95 · Flamurtari 8.55
    • Implied 1X2 · Vllaznia Shkodër 71.7% · Draw 17.9% · Flamurtari 10.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 10, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Vllaznia Shkodër 1.17 · Draw 5.92 · Flamurtari 11.49
    • Implied 1X2 · Vllaznia Shkodër 77.0% · Draw 15.2% · Flamurtari 7.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 10, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Vllaznia Shkodër win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 31/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (35 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 01:30 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2814531

Closing Odds 1.17
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Vllaznia Shkodër win · Vllaznia Shkodër 2–0 Flamurtari
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Vllaznia Shkodër; market prices Vllaznia Shkodër instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Vllaznia Shkodër 1.45 xG vs Flamurtari 1.25 → Vllaznia Shkodër 41.8%
  • Market: Vllaznia Shkodër ~77.0% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 65.0% · Over 2.5 35.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.1% · No 46.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Superliga Superliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vllaznia Shkodër 36 18 9 9 63
2 AF Elbasani 36 17 11 8 62
3 Egnatia Rrogozhinë 36 16 9 11 57
4 Dinamo Tirana 36 12 13 11 49
5 Partizani 36 13 9 14 48
6 Tirana 36 11 11 14 44
7 Vora 36 10 12 14 42
8 Teuta Durrës 36 9 15 12 42
9 Bylis 36 10 11 15 41
10 Flamurtari 36 8 12 16 36
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 AF Elbasani 36 48 37 +11 62
2 Dinamo Tirana 36 43 33 +10 49
3 Vllaznia Shkodër 36 42 27 +15 63
4 Egnatia Rrogozhinë 36 42 34 +8 57
5 Vora 36 39 40 -1 42
6 Flamurtari 36 39 45 -6 36
7 Partizani 36 38 48 -10 48
8 Bylis 36 38 50 -12 41
9 Tirana 36 36 46 -10 44
10 Teuta Durrës 36 32 37 -5 42