Predictions / Football / Albania. Superliga / Flamurtari vs Teuta Durrës

Prediction Audit: Flamurtari vs Teuta Durrës Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Flamurtari Flamurtari
May 06, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 82%
Teuta Durrës Teuta Durrës

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Flamurtari at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Flamurtari Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Flamurtari higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Flamurtari -11.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Flamurtari 41.8% 53.2% -11.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 23.8% +1.9 pp Aligned
Teuta Durrës 32.6% 23.0% +9.5 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Flamurtari's win probability at 53.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 11.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Flamurtari than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Flamurtari; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Flamurtari by 11.4 percentage points (53.2% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 06, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Flamurtari 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Teuta Durrës 32.6%
    • xG · Flamurtari 1.45 — Teuta Durrës 1.25
  2. May 06, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Flamurtari 1.66 · Draw 3.71 · Teuta Durrës 3.83
    • Implied 1X2 · Flamurtari 53.2% · Draw 23.8% · Teuta Durrës 23.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 06, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Flamurtari 1.66 · Draw 3.71 · Teuta Durrës 3.83
    • Implied 1X2 · Flamurtari 53.2% · Draw 23.8% · Teuta Durrës 23.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 06, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 43/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 05:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6344814

Closing Odds 1.66
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Flamurtari 1–1 Teuta Durrës
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Superliga
  • Fixture: Flamurtari vs Teuta Durrës
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-06 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Flamurtari 1.45 — Teuta Durrës 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 66.3% · Implied: 50.9% · Probability edge: +15.4 pts · Est. EV: +39.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 45.4% · No 54.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (13.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Superliga Superliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vllaznia Shkodër 36 18 9 9 63
2 AF Elbasani 36 17 11 8 62
3 Egnatia Rrogozhinë 36 16 9 11 57
4 Dinamo Tirana 36 12 13 11 49
5 Partizani 36 13 9 14 48
6 Tirana 36 11 11 14 44
7 Vora 36 10 12 14 42
8 Teuta Durrës 36 9 15 12 42
9 Bylis 36 10 11 15 41
10 Flamurtari 36 8 12 16 36
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 AF Elbasani 36 48 37 +11 62
2 Dinamo Tirana 36 43 33 +10 49
3 Vllaznia Shkodër 36 42 27 +15 63
4 Egnatia Rrogozhinë 36 42 34 +8 57
5 Vora 36 39 40 -1 42
6 Flamurtari 36 39 45 -6 36
7 Partizani 36 38 48 -10 48
8 Bylis 36 38 50 -12 41
9 Tirana 36 36 46 -10 44
10 Teuta Durrës 36 32 37 -5 42