Predictions / Football / Hungary. NB III - Northeast / Kisvárda II vs Cigand SE

Prediction Audit: Kisvárda II vs Cigand SE Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kisvárda II Kisvárda II
May 17, 2026 - 09:00
2 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 61%
Cigand SE Cigand SE

AI correctly predicted the Kisvárda II win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Kisvárda II Kisvárda II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 0-1, 1-0 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Cigand SE +3.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Kisvárda II 41.8% 43.8% -2.0 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 27.3% -1.6 pp Aligned
Cigand SE 32.6% 28.9% +3.6 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Kisvárda II win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Kisvárda II win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 17, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Kisvárda II 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Cigand SE 32.6%
    • xG · Kisvárda II 1.45 — Cigand SE 1.25
  2. May 17, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Kisvárda II 2.03 · Draw 3.26 · Cigand SE 3.07
    • Implied 1X2 · Kisvárda II 43.8% · Draw 27.3% · Cigand SE 28.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 17, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Kisvárda II 2.03 · Draw 3.26 · Cigand SE 3.07
    • Implied 1X2 · Kisvárda II 43.8% · Draw 27.3% · Cigand SE 28.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 17, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Kisvárda II win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 81/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 10:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3041089

Closing Odds 3.07
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Kisvárda II win · Kisvárda II 2–0 Cigand SE
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: NB III - Northeast
  • Fixture: Kisvárda II vs Cigand SE
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-17 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Kisvárda II 1.45 — Cigand SE 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 73.3% · Implied: 57.4% · Probability edge: +15.9 pts · Est. EV: +17.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 73.3% · No 26.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.2%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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NB III - Northeast NB III - Northeast — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kisvárda II 30 20 7 3 67
2 Cigand SE 30 18 7 5 61
3 DEAC 30 18 7 5 61
4 Tiszafuredi VSE 30 16 8 6 56
5 Debrecen II 30 16 7 7 55
6 Tarpa 30 12 11 7 47
7 Gödöllő 30 11 7 12 40
8 Diósgyőr II 30 11 5 14 38
9 Nyiregyhaza II 30 11 4 15 37
10 Eger 30 11 4 15 37
11 Tiszaújváros 30 9 7 14 34
12 Putnok VSE 30 9 5 16 32
13 Füzesabony 30 7 9 14 30
14 Ózd Sajóvölgye 30 7 8 15 29
15 Sényő Carnifex 30 7 7 16 28
16 FC Hatvan 30 5 1 24 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cigand SE 30 66 30 +36 61
2 Debrecen II 30 66 40 +26 55
3 Nyiregyhaza II 30 65 56 +9 37
4 DEAC 30 63 29 +34 61
5 Tiszafuredi VSE 30 61 36 +25 56
6 Kisvárda II 30 60 22 +38 67
7 Gödöllő 30 52 44 +8 40
8 Ózd Sajóvölgye 30 51 68 -17 29
9 Diósgyőr II 30 48 58 -10 38
10 Eger 30 46 71 -25 37
11 Putnok VSE 30 44 52 -8 32
12 Tiszaújváros 30 41 66 -25 34
13 Tarpa 30 39 28 +11 47
14 FC Hatvan 30 37 81 -44 16
15 Sényő Carnifex 30 32 74 -42 28
16 Füzesabony 30 25 41 -16 30
NB III - Northeast Hungary. NB III - Northeast Predictions