Predictions / Football / Hungary. NB III - Northeast / Sényő Carnifex vs Tiszafuredi VSE

Prediction Audit: Sényő Carnifex vs Tiszafuredi VSE Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sényő Carnifex Sényő Carnifex
May 10, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 55%
Tiszafuredi VSE Tiszafuredi VSE

The model missed the final outcome (Tiszafuredi VSE win 0–2).

The model had projected Sényő Carnifex at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sényő Carnifex Tiszafuredi VSE ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 0-2, 0-1, 1-3 0-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Tiszafuredi VSE higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Tiszafuredi VSE -21.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sényő Carnifex 41.8% 24.8% +17.0 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 20.7% +4.9 pp Aligned
Tiszafuredi VSE 32.6% 54.5% -21.9 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Tiszafuredi VSE's win probability at 54.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 21.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Tiszafuredi VSE win 0–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 0–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Sényő Carnifex; match finished Tiszafuredi VSE

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sényő Carnifex by 21.9 percentage points (63.7% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 10, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sényő Carnifex 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Tiszafuredi VSE 32.6%
    • xG · Sényő Carnifex 1.45 — Tiszafuredi VSE 1.25
  2. May 10, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sényő Carnifex 3.58 · Draw 4.28 · Tiszafuredi VSE 1.63
    • Implied 1X2 · Sényő Carnifex 24.8% · Draw 20.7% · Tiszafuredi VSE 54.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 10, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sényő Carnifex 3.58 · Draw 4.28 · Tiszafuredi VSE 1.63
    • Implied 1X2 · Sényő Carnifex 24.8% · Draw 20.7% · Tiszafuredi VSE 54.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 10, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Tiszafuredi VSE win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (22 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1460730

Closing Odds 1.63
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Tiszafuredi VSE win · Sényő Carnifex 0–2 Tiszafuredi VSE
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: NB III - Northeast
  • Fixture: Sényő Carnifex vs Tiszafuredi VSE
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Sényő Carnifex 1.45 — Tiszafuredi VSE 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 53.4% · Implied: 42.1% · Probability edge: +11.3 pts · Est. EV: +17.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 46.6% · No 53.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (9.8%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming NB III - Northeast Matches Track Sényő Carnifex Next Match Prediction Track Tiszafuredi VSE Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Sényő Carnifex & Tiszafuredi VSE!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
NB III - Northeast NB III - Northeast — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kisvárda II 30 20 7 3 67
2 Cigand SE 30 18 7 5 61
3 DEAC 30 18 7 5 61
4 Tiszafuredi VSE 30 16 8 6 56
5 Debrecen II 30 16 7 7 55
6 Tarpa 30 12 11 7 47
7 Gödöllő 30 11 7 12 40
8 Diósgyőr II 30 11 5 14 38
9 Nyiregyhaza II 30 11 4 15 37
10 Eger 30 11 4 15 37
11 Tiszaújváros 30 9 7 14 34
12 Putnok VSE 30 9 5 16 32
13 Füzesabony 30 7 9 14 30
14 Ózd Sajóvölgye 30 7 8 15 29
15 Sényő Carnifex 30 7 7 16 28
16 FC Hatvan 30 5 1 24 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cigand SE 30 66 30 +36 61
2 Debrecen II 30 66 40 +26 55
3 Nyiregyhaza II 30 65 56 +9 37
4 DEAC 30 63 29 +34 61
5 Tiszafuredi VSE 30 61 36 +25 56
6 Kisvárda II 30 60 22 +38 67
7 Gödöllő 30 52 44 +8 40
8 Ózd Sajóvölgye 30 51 68 -17 29
9 Diósgyőr II 30 48 58 -10 38
10 Eger 30 46 71 -25 37
11 Putnok VSE 30 44 52 -8 32
12 Tiszaújváros 30 41 66 -25 34
13 Tarpa 30 39 28 +11 47
14 FC Hatvan 30 37 81 -44 16
15 Sényő Carnifex 30 32 74 -42 28
16 Füzesabony 30 25 41 -16 30
NB III - Northeast Hungary. NB III - Northeast Predictions