Predictions / Football / Hungary. NB III - Northwest / Tatabánya vs Balatonfüredi

Prediction Audit: Tatabánya vs Balatonfüredi Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tatabánya Tatabánya
May 24, 2026 - 13:00
3 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 46%
Balatonfüredi Balatonfüredi

AI correctly predicted the Tatabánya win.

The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Tatabánya Tatabánya ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-0, 2-1, 1-0, 1-1, 3-0 3-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Tatabánya higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Tatabánya -34.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Tatabánya 41.8% 76.3% -34.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 14.1% +11.6 pp Model Edge
Balatonfüredi 32.6% 9.6% +22.9 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Tatabánya's win probability at 76.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 34.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Tatabánya win 3–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 3–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Tatabánya higher (76.3% vs model 41.8%, 34.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Tatabánya win 3–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 24, 2026 · 18:47 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Tatabánya 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Balatonfüredi 32.6%
    • xG · Tatabánya 1.45 — Balatonfüredi 1.25
  2. May 24, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Tatabánya 1.20 · Draw 6.50 · Balatonfüredi 9.50
    • Implied 1X2 · Tatabánya 76.3% · Draw 14.1% · Balatonfüredi 9.6%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. May 24, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Tatabánya 1.20 · Draw 6.50 · Balatonfüredi 9.50
    • Implied 1X2 · Tatabánya 76.3% · Draw 14.1% · Balatonfüredi 9.6%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  4. May 24, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Tatabánya win · 3–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 32/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (35 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 09:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5329542

Closing Odds 1.2
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Tatabánya win · Tatabánya 3–0 Balatonfüredi
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Tatabánya; market prices Tatabánya instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Tatabánya 1.45 xG vs Balatonfüredi 1.25 → Tatabánya 41.8%
  • Market: Tatabánya ~76.3% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 41.2% · Over 2.5 58.8%); BTTS No (Yes 44.6% · No 55.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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NB III - Northwest NB III - Northwest — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gyirmot SE 30 27 1 2 82
2 Tatabánya 30 20 2 8 62
3 Dorogi FC 30 18 4 8 58
4 Puskás II 30 17 3 10 54
5 Komárom 30 15 6 9 51
6 Haladás VSE 30 15 6 9 51
7 MTE 1904 30 14 5 11 47
8 Veszprém 30 12 8 10 44
9 Budaörs 30 12 5 13 41
10 Bicskei 30 10 6 14 36
11 Gyori ETO II 30 10 4 16 34
12 Újpest II 30 9 7 14 34
13 SC Sopron 30 9 7 14 34
14 Pápai Perutz 30 6 4 20 22
15 Balatonfüredi 30 4 6 20 18
16 Zsámbéki SK 30 3 4 23 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Gyirmot SE 30 106 20 +86 82
2 Tatabánya 30 64 37 +27 62
3 Komárom 30 59 45 +14 51
4 Puskás II 30 58 37 +21 54
5 Budaörs 30 53 51 +2 41
6 Bicskei 30 50 51 -1 36
7 Dorogi FC 30 49 34 +15 58
8 MTE 1904 30 48 33 +15 47
9 Gyori ETO II 30 47 63 -16 34
10 Újpest II 30 46 50 -4 34
11 Haladás VSE 30 43 32 +11 51
12 SC Sopron 30 43 58 -15 34
13 Pápai Perutz 30 43 83 -40 22
14 Veszprém 30 36 37 -1 44
15 Zsámbéki SK 30 35 107 -72 13
16 Balatonfüredi 30 20 62 -42 18
NB III - Northwest Hungary. NB III - Northwest Predictions