Predictions / Football / Hungary. NB III - Northwest / Gyori ETO II vs SC Sopron

Prediction Audit: Gyori ETO II vs SC Sopron Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Gyori ETO II Gyori ETO II
May 22, 2026 - 14:00
3 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 53%
SC Sopron SC Sopron

AI correctly predicted the Gyori ETO II win.

The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Gyori ETO II Gyori ETO II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: SC Sopron +4.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Gyori ETO II 41.8% 45.3% -3.5 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 26.4% -0.8 pp Aligned
SC Sopron 32.6% 28.3% +4.3 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Gyori ETO II win 3–2).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Gyori ETO II win 3–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 24, 2026 · 18:48 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Gyori ETO II 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · SC Sopron 32.6%
    • xG · Gyori ETO II 1.45 — SC Sopron 1.25
  2. May 24, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Gyori ETO II 1.96 · Draw 3.36 · SC Sopron 3.14
    • Implied 1X2 · Gyori ETO II 45.3% · Draw 26.4% · SC Sopron 28.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 24, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Gyori ETO II 1.96 · Draw 3.36 · SC Sopron 3.14
    • Implied 1X2 · Gyori ETO II 45.3% · Draw 26.4% · SC Sopron 28.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 22, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Gyori ETO II win · 3–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 78/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 06:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1964815

Closing Odds 3.14
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Gyori ETO II win · Gyori ETO II 3–2 SC Sopron
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: NB III - Northwest
  • Fixture: Gyori ETO II vs SC Sopron
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-24 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Gyori ETO II 1.45 — SC Sopron 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 67.0% · Implied: 58.4% · Probability edge: +8.6 pts · Est. EV: +10.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 57.6% · No 42.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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NB III - Northwest NB III - Northwest — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gyirmot SE 30 27 1 2 82
2 Tatabánya 30 20 2 8 62
3 Dorogi FC 30 18 4 8 58
4 Puskás II 30 17 3 10 54
5 Komárom 30 15 6 9 51
6 Haladás VSE 30 15 6 9 51
7 MTE 1904 30 14 5 11 47
8 Veszprém 30 12 8 10 44
9 Budaörs 30 12 5 13 41
10 Bicskei 30 10 6 14 36
11 Gyori ETO II 30 10 4 16 34
12 Újpest II 30 9 7 14 34
13 SC Sopron 30 9 7 14 34
14 Pápai Perutz 30 6 4 20 22
15 Balatonfüredi 30 4 6 20 18
16 Zsámbéki SK 30 3 4 23 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Gyirmot SE 30 106 20 +86 82
2 Tatabánya 30 64 37 +27 62
3 Komárom 30 59 45 +14 51
4 Puskás II 30 58 37 +21 54
5 Budaörs 30 53 51 +2 41
6 Bicskei 30 50 51 -1 36
7 Dorogi FC 30 49 34 +15 58
8 MTE 1904 30 48 33 +15 47
9 Gyori ETO II 30 47 63 -16 34
10 Újpest II 30 46 50 -4 34
11 Haladás VSE 30 43 32 +11 51
12 SC Sopron 30 43 58 -15 34
13 Pápai Perutz 30 43 83 -40 22
14 Veszprém 30 36 37 -1 44
15 Zsámbéki SK 30 35 107 -72 13
16 Balatonfüredi 30 20 62 -42 18
NB III - Northwest Hungary. NB III - Northwest Predictions