Predictions / Football / Hungary. NB III - Northwest / Gyori ETO II vs SC Sopron

Gyori ETO II vs SC Sopron Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Gyori ETO II Gyori ETO II
May 24, 2026 - 15:00
1.45
1.25
42% 26% 33%
SC Sopron SC Sopron

Final betting verdict

Different markets price efficiency differently — 1X2 can be a pass while goals markets still show edge.

  • No value on 1X2 (Gyori ETO II vs. current odds)
  • Possible value: Over 2.5 (+10.5% EV at best odds)
  • Possible value: BTTS No (+8.1% EV at best odds)
Moderate conviction (6.5/10) — one selective line, not a multi-market parlay.
Betting Primary Pick (highest +EV)
Over 2.5 — Value
EV +10.5% Model 67.0%
Why The model prices Over 2.5 goals about 11.1 percentage points above closing implied — the main structural read vs. the line.

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices SC Sopron (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 11.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Gyori ETO II (1X2) 41.8 45.3 -3.5
Draw (1X2) 25.7 26.4 -0.8
SC Sopron (1X2) 32.6 28.3 +4.3
Over 2.5 goals 67.0 55.9 +11.1
Under 2.5 goals 33.0 44.1 -11.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 67.0% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 55.9%. The difference — about 11.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Gyori ETO II (1X2) 1.96 1.96 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.36 3.36 0.0
SC Sopron (1X2) 3.14 3.14 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.65 1.65 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.09 2.09 0.0
Both Teams To Score Best value (+EV)
Yes 57.6% · No 42.4%
EV Yes -9.0% · EV No +8.1%
Value lean: BTTS No
1X2 Poor value
Gyori ETO II · Model 41.8%
implied 45.3%
Main consensus market · EV: -15.2%
Best available bookmaker line: -7.4% EV
Some outlier bookmaker prices may still show small theoretical value vs. the consensus line above.
Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun
Most Likely
1-1
Probability 9.4%
Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.
Betting decision (model vs. market EV)
Value opportunity — At least one market shows estimated +EV at current best decimal odds (threshold: 2.0%).
Decision strength: 6.5 / 10
  • Primary line identified (+1.0)
  • Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)
  • Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)
  • Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)
O/U 2.5: EV Over +10.5% · EV Under -21.5% (9 book pairs)
BTTS: EV Yes -9.0% · EV No +8.1%
Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.
OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.1.0(EV + Market Structure + Risk Adjustment) Check Odds at 1xBet

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: NB III - Northwest
  • Fixture: Gyori ETO II vs SC Sopron
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-24 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Gyori ETO II 1.45 — SC Sopron 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 67.0% · Implied: 58.4% · Probability edge: +8.6 pts · Est. EV: +10.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 57.6% · No 42.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Best Bet + Reason

The engine’s headline primary is: Over 2.5 goals.

We separate probability edge (model minus implied, in points of probability) from estimated EV (economic edge at the best price shown on the page).

Edges shrink quickly if prices move; always re-check the number on your book.

FAQ

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

What is the best-supported line in this snapshot?

Match the hero card above: if it says “Betting Primary Pick”, that leg cleared primary rules; if it says “Best +EV (tracked markets)”, it is the strongest +EV line that did not meet stricter Primary thresholds. The bullets below repeat the same model %, implied %, edge (pts), and EV % as that card.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

Who has the edge in the match-winner market?

Use the 1X2 model percentages in the summary and the 1X2 market card: the side with the highest model % is the model lean, but check EV — a lean can still be -EV after prices.

Risk Factors

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

  • Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
  • Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 24, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this
  • Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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NB III - Northwest NB III - Northwest — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gyirmot SE 29 26 1 2 79
2 Tatabánya 29 19 2 8 59
3 Dorogi FC 29 17 4 8 55
4 Puskás II 29 17 3 9 54
5 Komárom 29 15 6 8 51
6 Haladás VSE 29 15 5 9 50
7 MTE 1904 29 13 5 11 44
8 Veszprém 29 11 8 10 41
9 Budaörs 29 11 5 13 38
10 Bicskei 29 10 6 13 36
11 Gyori ETO II 30 10 4 16 34
12 Újpest II 29 9 7 13 34
13 SC Sopron 30 9 7 14 34
14 Pápai Perutz 29 6 3 20 21
15 Balatonfüredi 29 4 6 19 18
16 Zsámbéki SK 29 3 4 22 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Gyirmot SE 29 103 20 +83 79
2 Tatabánya 29 61 37 +24 59
3 Komárom 29 59 42 +17 51
4 Puskás II 29 58 34 +24 54
5 Budaörs 29 52 51 +1 38
6 Bicskei 29 50 50 0 36
7 Gyori ETO II 30 47 63 -16 34
8 Dorogi FC 29 46 34 +12 55
9 Újpest II 29 45 48 -3 34
10 SC Sopron 30 43 58 -15 34
11 Haladás VSE 29 42 31 +11 50
12 MTE 1904 29 42 32 +10 44
13 Pápai Perutz 29 42 82 -40 21
14 Veszprém 29 34 36 -2 41
15 Zsámbéki SK 29 34 101 -67 13
16 Balatonfüredi 29 20 59 -39 18
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