Predictions / Football / Hungary. NB III - Northwest / Újpest II vs Pápai Perutz

Prediction Audit: Újpest II vs Pápai Perutz Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Újpest II Újpest II
May 17, 2026 - 09:00
3 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 46%
Pápai Perutz Pápai Perutz

AI correctly predicted the Újpest II win.

The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Újpest II Újpest II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-2, 1-2, 3-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Újpest II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Újpest II -14.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Újpest II 41.8% 55.8% -14.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 23.3% +2.4 pp Aligned
Pápai Perutz 32.6% 20.9% +11.7 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Újpest II's win probability at 55.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 14.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Újpest II win 3–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Újpest II than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Újpest II higher (55.8% vs model 41.8%, 14.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Újpest II win 3–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 17, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Újpest II 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Pápai Perutz 32.6%
    • xG · Újpest II 1.45 — Pápai Perutz 1.25
  2. May 17, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Újpest II 1.59 · Draw 3.81 · Pápai Perutz 4.25
    • Implied 1X2 · Újpest II 55.8% · Draw 23.3% · Pápai Perutz 20.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 17, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Újpest II 1.59 · Draw 3.81 · Pápai Perutz 4.25
    • Implied 1X2 · Újpest II 55.8% · Draw 23.3% · Pápai Perutz 20.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 17, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Újpest II win · 3–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 29/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 28, 2026 · 12:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2194299

Closing Odds 1.59
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Újpest II win · Újpest II 3–0 Pápai Perutz
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: NB III - Northwest
  • Fixture: Újpest II vs Pápai Perutz
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-17 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Újpest II 1.45 — Pápai Perutz 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 72.3% · Implied: 61.5% · Probability edge: +10.8 pts · Est. EV: +13.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 56.1% · No 43.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (8.7%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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NB III - Northwest NB III - Northwest — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gyirmot SE 30 27 1 2 82
2 Tatabánya 30 20 2 8 62
3 Dorogi FC 30 18 4 8 58
4 Puskás II 30 17 3 10 54
5 Komárom 30 15 6 9 51
6 Haladás VSE 30 15 6 9 51
7 MTE 1904 30 14 5 11 47
8 Veszprém 30 12 8 10 44
9 Budaörs 30 12 5 13 41
10 Bicskei 30 10 6 14 36
11 Gyori ETO II 30 10 4 16 34
12 Újpest II 30 9 7 14 34
13 SC Sopron 30 9 7 14 34
14 Pápai Perutz 30 6 4 20 22
15 Balatonfüredi 30 4 6 20 18
16 Zsámbéki SK 30 3 4 23 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Gyirmot SE 30 106 20 +86 82
2 Tatabánya 30 64 37 +27 62
3 Komárom 30 59 45 +14 51
4 Puskás II 30 58 37 +21 54
5 Budaörs 30 53 51 +2 41
6 Bicskei 30 50 51 -1 36
7 Dorogi FC 30 49 34 +15 58
8 MTE 1904 30 48 33 +15 47
9 Gyori ETO II 30 47 63 -16 34
10 Újpest II 30 46 50 -4 34
11 Haladás VSE 30 43 32 +11 51
12 SC Sopron 30 43 58 -15 34
13 Pápai Perutz 30 43 83 -40 22
14 Veszprém 30 36 37 -1 44
15 Zsámbéki SK 30 35 107 -72 13
16 Balatonfüredi 30 20 62 -42 18
NB III - Northwest Hungary. NB III - Northwest Predictions