Predictions / Football / Hungary. NB III - Northwest / MTE 1904 vs Tatabánya

Prediction Audit: MTE 1904 vs Tatabánya Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

MTE 1904 MTE 1904
May 17, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
Tatabánya Tatabánya

The model missed the final outcome (Tatabánya win 0–1).

The model had projected MTE 1904 at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 MTE 1904 Tatabánya ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 1-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates MTE 1904 considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: MTE 1904 +15.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
MTE 1904 41.8% 26.4% +15.4 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 26.4% -0.7 pp Aligned
Tatabánya 32.6% 47.2% -14.6 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates MTE 1904's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 26.4%, a difference of 15.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Tatabánya win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on MTE 1904.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned MTE 1904; match finished Tatabánya

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on MTE 1904 by 15.4 percentage points (26.4% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 17, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · MTE 1904 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Tatabánya 32.6%
    • xG · MTE 1904 1.45 — Tatabánya 1.25
  2. May 17, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · MTE 1904 2.70 · Draw 3.50 · Tatabánya 2.20
    • Implied 1X2 · MTE 1904 33.4% · Draw 25.7% · Tatabánya 40.9%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. May 17, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · MTE 1904 3.36 · Draw 3.36 · Tatabánya 1.88
    • Implied 1X2 · MTE 1904 26.4% · Draw 26.4% · Tatabánya 47.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 17, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Tatabánya win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 8/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 06, 2026 · 07:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3109314

Closing Odds 3.36
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Tatabánya win · MTE 1904 0–1 Tatabánya
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: NB III - Northwest
  • Fixture: MTE 1904 vs Tatabánya
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-17 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): MTE 1904 1.45 — Tatabánya 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.6%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 42.3% · Over 2.5 57.7%); BTTS Yes (Yes 58.2% · No 41.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 58.2% · No 41.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.2%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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NB III - Northwest NB III - Northwest — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gyirmot SE 30 27 1 2 82
2 Tatabánya 30 20 2 8 62
3 Dorogi FC 30 18 4 8 58
4 Puskás II 30 17 3 10 54
5 Komárom 30 15 6 9 51
6 Haladás VSE 30 15 6 9 51
7 MTE 1904 30 14 5 11 47
8 Veszprém 30 12 8 10 44
9 Budaörs 30 12 5 13 41
10 Bicskei 30 10 6 14 36
11 Gyori ETO II 30 10 4 16 34
12 Újpest II 30 9 7 14 34
13 SC Sopron 30 9 7 14 34
14 Pápai Perutz 30 6 4 20 22
15 Balatonfüredi 30 4 6 20 18
16 Zsámbéki SK 30 3 4 23 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Gyirmot SE 30 106 20 +86 82
2 Tatabánya 30 64 37 +27 62
3 Komárom 30 59 45 +14 51
4 Puskás II 30 58 37 +21 54
5 Budaörs 30 53 51 +2 41
6 Bicskei 30 50 51 -1 36
7 Dorogi FC 30 49 34 +15 58
8 MTE 1904 30 48 33 +15 47
9 Gyori ETO II 30 47 63 -16 34
10 Újpest II 30 46 50 -4 34
11 Haladás VSE 30 43 32 +11 51
12 SC Sopron 30 43 58 -15 34
13 Pápai Perutz 30 43 83 -40 22
14 Veszprém 30 36 37 -1 44
15 Zsámbéki SK 30 35 107 -72 13
16 Balatonfüredi 30 20 62 -42 18
NB III - Northwest Hungary. NB III - Northwest Predictions