Predictions / Football / Hungary. NB III - Northwest / Dorogi FC vs Komárom

Prediction Audit: Dorogi FC vs Komárom Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dorogi FC Dorogi FC
May 10, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 82%
Komárom Komárom

AI correctly predicted the Draw.

The match finished 1–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 draw Draw ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 0-1, 1-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Draw 1–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 04, 2026 · 02:23 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Dorogi FC 1.45 — Komárom 1.25
  2. May 10, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 29, 2026 · 12:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2364326

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Dorogi FC 1–1 Komárom
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: NB III - Northwest
  • Fixture: Dorogi FC vs Komárom
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Dorogi FC 1.45 — Komárom 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 40.1% · Over 2.5 59.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 60.4% · No 39.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 60.4% · No 39.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.8%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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NB III - Northwest NB III - Northwest — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gyirmot SE 30 27 1 2 82
2 Tatabánya 30 20 2 8 62
3 Dorogi FC 30 18 4 8 58
4 Puskás II 30 17 3 10 54
5 Komárom 30 15 6 9 51
6 Haladás VSE 30 15 6 9 51
7 MTE 1904 30 14 5 11 47
8 Veszprém 30 12 8 10 44
9 Budaörs 30 12 5 13 41
10 Bicskei 30 10 6 14 36
11 Gyori ETO II 30 10 4 16 34
12 Újpest II 30 9 7 14 34
13 SC Sopron 30 9 7 14 34
14 Pápai Perutz 30 6 4 20 22
15 Balatonfüredi 30 4 6 20 18
16 Zsámbéki SK 30 3 4 23 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Gyirmot SE 30 106 20 +86 82
2 Tatabánya 30 64 37 +27 62
3 Komárom 30 59 45 +14 51
4 Puskás II 30 58 37 +21 54
5 Budaörs 30 53 51 +2 41
6 Bicskei 30 50 51 -1 36
7 Dorogi FC 30 49 34 +15 58
8 MTE 1904 30 48 33 +15 47
9 Gyori ETO II 30 47 63 -16 34
10 Újpest II 30 46 50 -4 34
11 Haladás VSE 30 43 32 +11 51
12 SC Sopron 30 43 58 -15 34
13 Pápai Perutz 30 43 83 -40 22
14 Veszprém 30 36 37 -1 44
15 Zsámbéki SK 30 35 107 -72 13
16 Balatonfüredi 30 20 62 -42 18
NB III - Northwest Hungary. NB III - Northwest Predictions