Predictions / Football / Hungary. NB III - Northwest / Gyirmot SE vs Tatabánya

Prediction Audit: Gyirmot SE vs Tatabánya Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Gyirmot SE Gyirmot SE
May 10, 2026 - 16:00
4 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 35%
Tatabánya Tatabánya

AI correctly predicted the Gyirmot SE win.

The match finished 4–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Gyirmot SE Gyirmot SE ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 3-1, 2-2, 2-0 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Gyirmot SE higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Gyirmot SE -18.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Gyirmot SE 41.8% 60.0% -18.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 21.7% +4.0 pp Aligned
Tatabánya 32.6% 18.3% +14.3 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Gyirmot SE's win probability at 60.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 18.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Gyirmot SE win 4–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Gyirmot SE than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Gyirmot SE higher (60.0% vs model 41.8%, 18.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Gyirmot SE win 4–0).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 10, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Gyirmot SE 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Tatabánya 32.6%
    • xG · Gyirmot SE 1.45 — Tatabánya 1.25
  2. May 10, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Gyirmot SE 1.48 · Draw 4.33 · Tatabánya 4.75
    • Implied 1X2 · Gyirmot SE 60.5% · Draw 20.7% · Tatabánya 18.8%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. May 10, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Gyirmot SE 1.48 · Draw 4.09 · Tatabánya 4.86
    • Implied 1X2 · Gyirmot SE 60.0% · Draw 21.7% · Tatabánya 18.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 10, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Gyirmot SE win · 4–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (18 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 8/100
Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2515080

Closing Odds 1.48
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Gyirmot SE win · Gyirmot SE 4–0 Tatabánya
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: NB III - Northwest
  • Fixture: Gyirmot SE vs Tatabánya
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Gyirmot SE 1.45 — Tatabánya 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 26.1% · Over 2.5 73.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 85.6% · No 14.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 85.6% · No 14.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (8.9%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming NB III - Northwest Matches Track Gyirmot SE Next Match Prediction Track Tatabánya Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Gyirmot SE & Tatabánya!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
NB III - Northwest NB III - Northwest — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gyirmot SE 30 27 1 2 82
2 Tatabánya 30 20 2 8 62
3 Dorogi FC 30 18 4 8 58
4 Puskás II 30 17 3 10 54
5 Komárom 30 15 6 9 51
6 Haladás VSE 30 15 6 9 51
7 MTE 1904 30 14 5 11 47
8 Veszprém 30 12 8 10 44
9 Budaörs 30 12 5 13 41
10 Bicskei 30 10 6 14 36
11 Gyori ETO II 30 10 4 16 34
12 Újpest II 30 9 7 14 34
13 SC Sopron 30 9 7 14 34
14 Pápai Perutz 30 6 4 20 22
15 Balatonfüredi 30 4 6 20 18
16 Zsámbéki SK 30 3 4 23 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Gyirmot SE 30 106 20 +86 82
2 Tatabánya 30 64 37 +27 62
3 Komárom 30 59 45 +14 51
4 Puskás II 30 58 37 +21 54
5 Budaörs 30 53 51 +2 41
6 Bicskei 30 50 51 -1 36
7 Dorogi FC 30 49 34 +15 58
8 MTE 1904 30 48 33 +15 47
9 Gyori ETO II 30 47 63 -16 34
10 Újpest II 30 46 50 -4 34
11 Haladás VSE 30 43 32 +11 51
12 SC Sopron 30 43 58 -15 34
13 Pápai Perutz 30 43 83 -40 22
14 Veszprém 30 36 37 -1 44
15 Zsámbéki SK 30 35 107 -72 13
16 Balatonfüredi 30 20 62 -42 18
NB III - Northwest Hungary. NB III - Northwest Predictions