Predictions / Football / Hungary. NB III - Northwest / Gyori ETO II vs Balatonfüredi

Prediction Audit: Gyori ETO II vs Balatonfüredi Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Gyori ETO II Gyori ETO II
May 10, 2026 - 09:00
1 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 82%
Balatonfüredi Balatonfüredi

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Gyori ETO II at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Gyori ETO II Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 04, 2026 · 02:21 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Gyori ETO II 1.45 — Balatonfüredi 1.25
  2. May 10, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 07:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3393761

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Gyori ETO II 1–1 Balatonfüredi
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: NB III - Northwest
  • Fixture: Gyori ETO II vs Balatonfüredi
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Gyori ETO II 1.45 — Balatonfüredi 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 37.0% · Over 2.5 63.0%); BTTS No (Yes 38.4% · No 61.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 38.4% · No 61.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.0%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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NB III - Northwest NB III - Northwest — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gyirmot SE 30 27 1 2 82
2 Tatabánya 30 20 2 8 62
3 Dorogi FC 30 18 4 8 58
4 Puskás II 30 17 3 10 54
5 Komárom 30 15 6 9 51
6 Haladás VSE 30 15 6 9 51
7 MTE 1904 30 14 5 11 47
8 Veszprém 30 12 8 10 44
9 Budaörs 30 12 5 13 41
10 Bicskei 30 10 6 14 36
11 Gyori ETO II 30 10 4 16 34
12 Újpest II 30 9 7 14 34
13 SC Sopron 30 9 7 14 34
14 Pápai Perutz 30 6 4 20 22
15 Balatonfüredi 30 4 6 20 18
16 Zsámbéki SK 30 3 4 23 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Gyirmot SE 30 106 20 +86 82
2 Tatabánya 30 64 37 +27 62
3 Komárom 30 59 45 +14 51
4 Puskás II 30 58 37 +21 54
5 Budaörs 30 53 51 +2 41
6 Bicskei 30 50 51 -1 36
7 Dorogi FC 30 49 34 +15 58
8 MTE 1904 30 48 33 +15 47
9 Gyori ETO II 30 47 63 -16 34
10 Újpest II 30 46 50 -4 34
11 Haladás VSE 30 43 32 +11 51
12 SC Sopron 30 43 58 -15 34
13 Pápai Perutz 30 43 83 -40 22
14 Veszprém 30 36 37 -1 44
15 Zsámbéki SK 30 35 107 -72 13
16 Balatonfüredi 30 20 62 -42 18
NB III - Northwest Hungary. NB III - Northwest Predictions