Predictions / Football / Hungary. NB III - Southeast / ESMTK vs Tiszaföldvár

Prediction Audit: ESMTK vs Tiszaföldvár Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

ESMTK ESMTK
May 24, 2026 - 15:00
8 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 12%
Tiszaföldvár Tiszaföldvár

AI correctly predicted the ESMTK win.

The match finished 8–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 ESMTK ESMTK ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 1-0, 3-1 8-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 8 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (ESMTK win 8–0).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 24, 2026 · 18:49 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · ESMTK 1.45 — Tiszaföldvár 1.25
  2. May 24, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result ESMTK win · 8–0
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 03:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6335717

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result ESMTK win · ESMTK 8–0 Tiszaföldvár
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: NB III - Southeast
  • Fixture: ESMTK vs Tiszaföldvár
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-24 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): ESMTK 1.45 — Tiszaföldvár 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 35.9% · Over 2.5 64.1%); BTTS No (Yes 44.6% · No 55.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 44.6% · No 55.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-0 (11.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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NB III - Southeast NB III - Southeast — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Monori Se 30 20 7 3 67
2 ESMTK 30 21 3 6 66
3 Gyulai Termál 30 20 5 5 65
4 III. Kerületi TUE 30 18 7 5 61
5 Vasas II 30 14 11 5 53
6 Csep-Gól 30 15 4 11 49
7 Dabas 30 12 6 12 42
8 Honvéd II 30 11 9 10 42
9 Dunaharaszti MTK 30 11 7 12 40
10 Hódmezővásárhely 30 10 7 13 37
11 Szegedi VSE 30 10 5 15 35
12 BKV Előre 30 9 5 16 32
13 Szeged-Csanád II 30 7 8 15 29
14 Békéscsaba II 30 7 5 18 26
15 Martfűi LSE 30 6 2 22 20
16 Tiszaföldvár 30 3 1 26 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Gyulai Termál 30 80 24 +56 65
2 III. Kerületi TUE 30 71 38 +33 61
3 ESMTK 30 70 24 +46 66
4 Vasas II 30 65 40 +25 53
5 Monori Se 30 63 31 +32 67
6 Csep-Gól 30 50 41 +9 49
7 BKV Előre 30 50 64 -14 32
8 Hódmezővásárhely 30 48 56 -8 37
9 Dabas 30 47 42 +5 42
10 Szegedi VSE 30 47 62 -15 35
11 Dunaharaszti MTK 30 46 50 -4 40
12 Honvéd II 30 40 39 +1 42
13 Szeged-Csanád II 30 37 53 -16 29
14 Békéscsaba II 30 30 61 -31 26
15 Martfűi LSE 30 26 75 -49 20
16 Tiszaföldvár 30 25 95 -70 10
NB III - Southeast Hungary. NB III - Southeast Predictions