Predictions / Football / Hungary. NB III - Southeast / Hódmezővásárhely vs III. Kerületi TUE

Prediction Audit: Hódmezővásárhely vs III. Kerületi TUE Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hódmezővásárhely Hódmezővásárhely
May 24, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 18%
III. Kerületi TUE III. Kerületi TUE

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Hódmezővásárhely at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Hódmezővásárhely Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 0-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 24, 2026 · 18:50 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Hódmezővásárhely 1.45 — III. Kerületi TUE 1.25
  2. May 24, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1522422

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Hódmezővásárhely 0–0 III. Kerületi TUE
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: NB III - Southeast
  • Fixture: Hódmezővásárhely vs III. Kerületi TUE
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-24 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Hódmezővásárhely 1.45 — III. Kerületi TUE 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 34.9% · Over 2.5 65.1%); BTTS Yes (Yes 68.0% · No 32.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 68.0% · No 32.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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See Upcoming NB III - Southeast Matches Track Hódmezővásárhely Next Match Prediction Track III. Kerületi TUE Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

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NB III - Southeast NB III - Southeast — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Monori Se 30 20 7 3 67
2 ESMTK 30 21 3 6 66
3 Gyulai Termál 30 20 5 5 65
4 III. Kerületi TUE 30 18 7 5 61
5 Vasas II 30 14 11 5 53
6 Csep-Gól 30 15 4 11 49
7 Dabas 30 12 6 12 42
8 Honvéd II 30 11 9 10 42
9 Dunaharaszti MTK 30 11 7 12 40
10 Hódmezővásárhely 30 10 7 13 37
11 Szegedi VSE 30 10 5 15 35
12 BKV Előre 30 9 5 16 32
13 Szeged-Csanád II 30 7 8 15 29
14 Békéscsaba II 30 7 5 18 26
15 Martfűi LSE 30 6 2 22 20
16 Tiszaföldvár 30 3 1 26 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Gyulai Termál 30 80 24 +56 65
2 III. Kerületi TUE 30 71 38 +33 61
3 ESMTK 30 70 24 +46 66
4 Vasas II 30 65 40 +25 53
5 Monori Se 30 63 31 +32 67
6 Csep-Gól 30 50 41 +9 49
7 BKV Előre 30 50 64 -14 32
8 Hódmezővásárhely 30 48 56 -8 37
9 Dabas 30 47 42 +5 42
10 Szegedi VSE 30 47 62 -15 35
11 Dunaharaszti MTK 30 46 50 -4 40
12 Honvéd II 30 40 39 +1 42
13 Szeged-Csanád II 30 37 53 -16 29
14 Békéscsaba II 30 30 61 -31 26
15 Martfűi LSE 30 26 75 -49 20
16 Tiszaföldvár 30 25 95 -70 10
NB III - Southeast Hungary. NB III - Southeast Predictions