Predictions / Football / Hungary. NB III - Southeast / Gyulai Termál vs Dabas

Prediction Audit: Gyulai Termál vs Dabas Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Gyulai Termál Gyulai Termál
May 24, 2026 - 15:00
3 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 46%
Dabas Dabas

AI correctly predicted the Gyulai Termál win.

The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Gyulai Termál Gyulai Termál ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 3-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Gyulai Termál higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Gyulai Termál -21.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Gyulai Termál 41.8% 63.3% -21.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 20.9% +4.8 pp Aligned
Dabas 32.6% 15.8% +16.8 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Gyulai Termál's win probability at 63.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 21.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Gyulai Termál win 3–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Gyulai Termál higher (63.3% vs model 41.8%, 21.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Gyulai Termál win 3–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 24, 2026 · 18:49 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Gyulai Termál 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Dabas 32.6%
    • xG · Gyulai Termál 1.45 — Dabas 1.25
  2. May 24, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Gyulai Termál 1.40 · Draw 4.24 · Dabas 5.61
    • Implied 1X2 · Gyulai Termál 63.3% · Draw 20.9% · Dabas 15.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 24, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Gyulai Termál 1.40 · Draw 4.24 · Dabas 5.61
    • Implied 1X2 · Gyulai Termál 63.3% · Draw 20.9% · Dabas 15.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 24, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Gyulai Termál win · 3–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (22 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6359801

Closing Odds 1.4
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Gyulai Termál win · Gyulai Termál 3–0 Dabas
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: NB III - Southeast
  • Fixture: Gyulai Termál vs Dabas
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-24 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Gyulai Termál 1.45 — Dabas 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 38.0% · Over 2.5 62.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 86.6% · No 13.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 86.6% · No 13.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.8%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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NB III - Southeast NB III - Southeast — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Monori Se 30 20 7 3 67
2 ESMTK 30 21 3 6 66
3 Gyulai Termál 30 20 5 5 65
4 III. Kerületi TUE 30 18 7 5 61
5 Vasas II 30 14 11 5 53
6 Csep-Gól 30 15 4 11 49
7 Dabas 30 12 6 12 42
8 Honvéd II 30 11 9 10 42
9 Dunaharaszti MTK 30 11 7 12 40
10 Hódmezővásárhely 30 10 7 13 37
11 Szegedi VSE 30 10 5 15 35
12 BKV Előre 30 9 5 16 32
13 Szeged-Csanád II 30 7 8 15 29
14 Békéscsaba II 30 7 5 18 26
15 Martfűi LSE 30 6 2 22 20
16 Tiszaföldvár 30 3 1 26 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Gyulai Termál 30 80 24 +56 65
2 III. Kerületi TUE 30 71 38 +33 61
3 ESMTK 30 70 24 +46 66
4 Vasas II 30 65 40 +25 53
5 Monori Se 30 63 31 +32 67
6 Csep-Gól 30 50 41 +9 49
7 BKV Előre 30 50 64 -14 32
8 Hódmezővásárhely 30 48 56 -8 37
9 Dabas 30 47 42 +5 42
10 Szegedi VSE 30 47 62 -15 35
11 Dunaharaszti MTK 30 46 50 -4 40
12 Honvéd II 30 40 39 +1 42
13 Szeged-Csanád II 30 37 53 -16 29
14 Békéscsaba II 30 30 61 -31 26
15 Martfűi LSE 30 26 75 -49 20
16 Tiszaföldvár 30 25 95 -70 10
NB III - Southeast Hungary. NB III - Southeast Predictions