The model missed the final outcome (ESMTK win 0–5).
The model had projected Vasas II at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Vasas II ESMTK ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 0-5 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Vasas II; match finished ESMTK
Market lesson
The full-time result was ESMTK win 0–5, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Vasas II 1.45 — ESMTK 1.25
-
Mar 14, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result ESMTK win · 0–5
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
ESMTK win · Vasas II 0–5 ESMTK
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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NB III - Southeast — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monori Se | 30 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 67 |
| 2 | ESMTK | 30 | 21 | 3 | 6 | 66 |
| 3 | Gyulai Termál | 30 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 65 |
| 4 | III. Kerületi TUE | 30 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 61 |
| 5 | Vasas II | 30 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 53 |
| 6 | Csep-Gól | 30 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 49 |
| 7 | Dabas | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 42 |
| 8 | Honvéd II | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 42 |
| 9 | Dunaharaszti MTK | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 40 |
| 10 | Hódmezővásárhely | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 37 |
| 11 | Szegedi VSE | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 35 |
| 12 | BKV Előre | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 32 |
| 13 | Szeged-Csanád II | 30 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 29 |
| 14 | Békéscsaba II | 30 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 26 |
| 15 | Martfűi LSE | 30 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 20 |
| 16 | Tiszaföldvár | 30 | 3 | 1 | 26 | 10 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gyulai Termál | 30 | 80 | 24 | +56 | 65 |
| 2 | III. Kerületi TUE | 30 | 71 | 38 | +33 | 61 |
| 3 | ESMTK | 30 | 70 | 24 | +46 | 66 |
| 4 | Vasas II | 30 | 65 | 40 | +25 | 53 |
| 5 | Monori Se | 30 | 63 | 31 | +32 | 67 |
| 6 | Csep-Gól | 30 | 50 | 41 | +9 | 49 |
| 7 | BKV Előre | 30 | 50 | 64 | -14 | 32 |
| 8 | Hódmezővásárhely | 30 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 37 |
| 9 | Dabas | 30 | 47 | 42 | +5 | 42 |
| 10 | Szegedi VSE | 30 | 47 | 62 | -15 | 35 |
| 11 | Dunaharaszti MTK | 30 | 46 | 50 | -4 | 40 |
| 12 | Honvéd II | 30 | 40 | 39 | +1 | 42 |
| 13 | Szeged-Csanád II | 30 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 29 |
| 14 | Békéscsaba II | 30 | 30 | 61 | -31 | 26 |
| 15 | Martfűi LSE | 30 | 26 | 75 | -49 | 20 |
| 16 | Tiszaföldvár | 30 | 25 | 95 | -70 | 10 |
