Prediction Audit: Pécsi MFC vs Pénzügyőr Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Pécsi MFC

May 24, 2026 - 15:00

1 1.45

0 1.25

xG Accuracy: 63%

Pénzügyőr

AI correctly predicted the Pécsi MFC win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Pécsi MFC Pécsi MFC ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 2-0, 2-1, 1-0, 1-1, 3-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Pécsi MFC win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

May 24, 2026 · 18:53 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Pécsi MFC 1.45 — Pénzügyőr 1.25
May 24, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Pécsi MFC win · 1–0
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Pending

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation pending

Market Compatibility 100/100

Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 06:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1682083

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Pécsi MFC win · Pécsi MFC 1–0 Pénzügyőr

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: NB III - Southwest
Fixture: Pécsi MFC vs Pénzügyőr
Kickoff: 2026-05-24 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Pécsi MFC 1.45 — Pénzügyőr 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 37.0% · Over 2.5 63.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 50.5% · No 49.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 50.5% · No 49.5%
Correct score (top bin): 2-0 (9.8%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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NB III - Southwest — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Nagykanizsai ULE	30	21	6	3	69
2	Pécsi MFC	30	20	7	3	67
3	Kaposvar	30	20	3	7	63
4	Ferencváros II	30	17	4	9	55
5	Majosi	30	17	3	10	54
6	MTK Budapest II	30	16	4	10	52
7	Érdi VSE	30	15	7	8	52
8	Dunaújváros-Pálhalma	30	13	10	7	49
9	Iváncsa	30	11	6	13	39
10	Siofok	30	11	5	14	38
11	Paksi SE II	30	10	2	18	32
12	Szekszárd	30	9	4	17	31
13	PTE-PEAC	30	6	10	14	28
14	Balatonlelle SE	30	6	6	18	24
15	Pénzügyőr	30	4	8	18	20
16	Dombóvári	30	0	3	27	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Majosi	30	78	49	+29	54
2	Pécsi MFC	30	71	25	+46	67
3	Nagykanizsai ULE	30	64	27	+37	69
4	Kaposvar	30	64	32	+32	63
5	Ferencváros II	30	63	43	+20	55
6	MTK Budapest II	30	62	33	+29	52
7	Dunaújváros-Pálhalma	30	58	42	+16	49
8	Iváncsa	30	49	44	+5	39
9	Érdi VSE	30	47	39	+8	52
10	Szekszárd	30	43	75	-32	31
11	Paksi SE II	30	42	62	-20	32
12	Siofok	30	40	55	-15	38
13	PTE-PEAC	30	39	51	-12	28
14	Pénzügyőr	30	31	61	-30	20
15	Balatonlelle SE	30	24	53	-29	24
16	Dombóvári	30	22	106	-84	3