Prediction Audit: Majosi vs Pénzügyőr Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Majosi

May 10, 2026 - 15:00

4 1.45

0 1.25

xG Accuracy: 35%

Pénzügyőr

AI correctly predicted the Majosi win.

The match finished 4–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Majosi Majosi ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 3-1, 2-0, 2-2 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Majosi win 4–0).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

May 04, 2026 · 02:27 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Majosi 1.45 — Pénzügyőr 1.25
May 10, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Majosi win · 4–0
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Pending

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation pending

Market Compatibility 100/100

Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 12, 2026 · 02:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3727571

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Majosi win · Majosi 4–0 Pénzügyőr

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: NB III - Southwest
Fixture: Majosi vs Pénzügyőr
Kickoff: 2026-05-10 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
xG (showing): Majosi 1.45 — Pénzügyőr 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 29.4% · Over 2.5 70.6%); BTTS No (Yes 48.3% · No 51.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 48.3% · No 51.7%
Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (9.3%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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NB III - Southwest — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Nagykanizsai ULE	30	21	6	3	69
2	Pécsi MFC	30	20	7	3	67
3	Kaposvar	30	20	3	7	63
4	Ferencváros II	30	17	4	9	55
5	Majosi	30	17	3	10	54
6	MTK Budapest II	30	16	4	10	52
7	Érdi VSE	30	15	7	8	52
8	Dunaújváros-Pálhalma	30	13	10	7	49
9	Iváncsa	30	11	6	13	39
10	Siofok	30	11	5	14	38
11	Paksi SE II	30	10	2	18	32
12	Szekszárd	30	9	4	17	31
13	PTE-PEAC	30	6	10	14	28
14	Balatonlelle SE	30	6	6	18	24
15	Pénzügyőr	30	4	8	18	20
16	Dombóvári	30	0	3	27	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Majosi	30	78	49	+29	54
2	Pécsi MFC	30	71	25	+46	67
3	Nagykanizsai ULE	30	64	27	+37	69
4	Kaposvar	30	64	32	+32	63
5	Ferencváros II	30	63	43	+20	55
6	MTK Budapest II	30	62	33	+29	52
7	Dunaújváros-Pálhalma	30	58	42	+16	49
8	Iváncsa	30	49	44	+5	39
9	Érdi VSE	30	47	39	+8	52
10	Szekszárd	30	43	75	-32	31
11	Paksi SE II	30	42	62	-20	32
12	Siofok	30	40	55	-15	38
13	PTE-PEAC	30	39	51	-12	28
14	Pénzügyőr	30	31	61	-30	20
15	Balatonlelle SE	30	24	53	-29	24
16	Dombóvári	30	22	106	-84	3