The model missed the final outcome (Polissya II win 0–6).
The model had projected Real Pharm at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Real Pharm Polissya II ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 0-6 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 6 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Real Pharm; match finished Polissya II
Market lesson
The full-time result was Polissya II win 0–6, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Real Pharm 1.45 — Polissya II 1.25
-
Mar 21, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Polissya II win · 0–6
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FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Polissya II win · Real Pharm 0–6 Polissya II
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Druha Liga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kolos Kovalivka II | 19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 45 |
| 1 | Kulykiv | 20 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 45 |
| 2 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 19 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 42 |
| 2 | Polissya II | 20 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 42 |
| 3 | Trostianets | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 35 |
| 3 | Nyva Ternopil II | 20 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 41 |
| 4 | Oleksandria II | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 34 |
| 4 | Atlet | 20 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 31 |
| 5 | Chayka | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 34 |
| 5 | Uzhhorod | 21 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 30 |
| 6 | Rebel | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 33 |
| 6 | Nyva Vinnytsya | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 30 |
| 7 | Livyi Bereg 2 | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 27 |
| 7 | Skala 1911 Stryi | 21 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 29 |
| 8 | Lisne | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 27 |
| 8 | Chornomorets II | 19 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 15 |
| 9 | Hirnyk-Sport | 19 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 9 |
| 9 | Vilkhivtsi | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 22 |
| 10 | Penuel | 19 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 8 |
| 10 | Bukovyna 2 | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 17 |
| 11 | Dinaz Vyshhorod | 19 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 8 |
| 11 | Real Pharm | 20 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polissya II | 20 | 50 | 18 | +32 | 42 |
| 2 | Skala 1911 Stryi | 21 | 48 | 37 | +11 | 29 |
| 3 | Kulykiv | 20 | 41 | 13 | +28 | 45 |
| 4 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 19 | 41 | 14 | +27 | 42 |
| 5 | Kolos Kovalivka II | 19 | 39 | 13 | +26 | 45 |
| 6 | Chayka | 19 | 35 | 27 | +8 | 34 |
| 7 | Trostianets | 19 | 34 | 18 | +16 | 35 |
| 8 | Atlet | 20 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 31 |
| 9 | Lisne | 19 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 27 |
| 10 | Vilkhivtsi | 21 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 22 |
| 11 | Uzhhorod | 21 | 29 | 26 | +3 | 30 |
| 12 | Nyva Vinnytsya | 20 | 29 | 26 | +3 | 30 |
| 13 | Livyi Bereg 2 | 19 | 28 | 18 | +10 | 27 |
| 14 | Nyva Ternopil II | 20 | 26 | 17 | +9 | 41 |
| 15 | Oleksandria II | 20 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 34 |
| 16 | Bukovyna 2 | 20 | 21 | 35 | -14 | 17 |
| 17 | Rebel | 19 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 33 |
| 18 | Chornomorets II | 19 | 19 | 33 | -14 | 15 |
| 19 | Penuel | 19 | 16 | 38 | -22 | 8 |
| 20 | Hirnyk-Sport | 19 | 14 | 44 | -30 | 9 |
| 21 | Real Pharm | 20 | 14 | 70 | -56 | 2 |
| 22 | Dinaz Vyshhorod | 19 | 12 | 45 | -33 | 8 |
