Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 4 / Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Wisła Kraków II

Prediction Audit: Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Wisła Kraków II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Podlasie Biała Podlaska Podlasie Biała Podlaska
May 30, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.45
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 53%
Wisła Kraków II Wisła Kraków II

The model missed the final outcome (Wisła Kraków II win 2–3).

The model had projected Podlasie Biała Podlaska at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Podlasie Biała Podlaska Wisła Kraków II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Wisła Kraków II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Wisła Kraków II -12.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 41.8% 32.0% +9.7 pp Model Higher
Draw 25.7% 23.4% +2.3 pp Aligned
Wisła Kraków II 32.6% 44.6% -12.0 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Wisła Kraków II's win probability at 44.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 12.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Wisła Kraków II win 2–3.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Wisła Kraków II than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Podlasie Biała Podlaska; match finished Wisła Kraków II
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Podlasie Biała Podlaska by 12.0 percentage points (53.8% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 30, 2026 · 19:06 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Wisła Kraków II 32.6%
    • xG · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1.45 — Wisła Kraków II 1.25
  2. May 30, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2.81 · Draw 3.85 · Wisła Kraków II 2.02
    • Implied 1X2 · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 32.0% · Draw 23.4% · Wisła Kraków II 44.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 30, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2.81 · Draw 3.85 · Wisła Kraków II 2.02
    • Implied 1X2 · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 32.0% · Draw 23.4% · Wisła Kraków II 44.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 30, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Wisła Kraków II win · 2–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 14/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 13:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6243453

Closing Odds 2.02
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Wisła Kraków II win · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2–3 Wisła Kraków II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: III Liga - Group 4
  • Fixture: Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Wisła Kraków II
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-30 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1.45 — Wisła Kraków II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 77.1% · Implied: 65.9% · Probability edge: +11.2 pts · Est. EV: +12.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 77.1% · No 22.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 4 III Liga - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Avia Świdnik 34 23 8 3 77
2 KSZO 1929 34 22 8 4 74
3 Chełmianka Chełm 34 21 9 4 72
4 Korona Kielce II 34 18 4 12 58
5 Star Starachowice 34 15 10 9 55
6 Czarni Połaniec 34 16 5 13 53
7 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 34 14 10 10 52
8 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 34 14 9 11 51
9 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 34 15 6 13 51
10 Wisła Kraków II 34 15 4 15 49
11 Wisłoka Dębica 34 12 12 10 48
12 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 34 11 10 13 43
13 Naprzód 34 11 6 18 38
14 Sokół Kolb. 34 11 4 19 37
15 Stal Kraśnik 34 9 7 18 34
16 Cracovia Kraków II 34 9 6 19 33
17 Świdniczanka Świdnik 34 5 5 25 20
18 Sparta KW 34 4 1 29 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Avia Świdnik 34 84 35 +49 77
2 Wisła Kraków II 34 67 58 +9 49
3 KSZO 1929 34 66 30 +36 74
4 Korona Kielce II 34 66 59 +7 58
5 Chełmianka Chełm 34 65 31 +34 72
6 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 34 61 45 +16 51
7 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 34 60 48 +12 52
8 Czarni Połaniec 34 59 49 +10 53
9 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 34 59 52 +7 43
10 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 34 52 51 +1 51
11 Star Starachowice 34 51 43 +8 55
12 Naprzód 34 45 56 -11 38
13 Cracovia Kraków II 34 44 71 -27 33
14 Stal Kraśnik 34 42 52 -10 34
15 Wisłoka Dębica 34 37 35 +2 48
16 Sokół Kolb. 34 36 54 -18 37
17 Świdniczanka Świdnik 34 36 80 -44 20
18 Sparta KW 34 29 110 -81 13
III Liga - Group 4 Poland. III Liga - Group 4 Predictions