Prediction Audit: Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Cracovia Kraków II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

May 30, 2026 - 15:00

5 1.45

6 1.25

xG Accuracy: 10%

Cracovia Kraków II

The model missed the final outcome (Cracovia Kraków II win 5–6).

The model had projected Siarka Tarnobrzeg at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (11 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Siarka Tarnobrzeg Cracovia Kraków II ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 5-6 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Siarka Tarnobrzeg	41.8%	48.2%	-6.4 pp	Market Higher
Draw	25.7%	24.6%	+1.1 pp	Aligned
Cracovia Kraków II	32.6%	27.2%	+5.4 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Siarka Tarnobrzeg's win probability at 48.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 6.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Cracovia Kraków II win 5–6.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Siarka Tarnobrzeg. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 11 goals materialised

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (11 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Siarka Tarnobrzeg by 6.4 percentage points (48.2% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

May 30, 2026 · 19:05 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Cracovia Kraków II 32.6%
- xG · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1.45 — Cracovia Kraków II 1.25
May 30, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1.84 · Draw 3.61 · Cracovia Kraków II 3.26
- Implied 1X2 · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 48.2% · Draw 24.6% · Cracovia Kraków II 27.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
May 30, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1.84 · Draw 3.61 · Cracovia Kraków II 3.26
- Implied 1X2 · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 48.2% · Draw 24.6% · Cracovia Kraków II 27.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
May 30, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Cracovia Kraków II win · 5–6
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 67/100

Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 06, 2026 · 02:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3098717

Closing Odds 1.84

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Cracovia Kraków II win · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 5–6 Cracovia Kraków II

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: III Liga - Group 4
Fixture: Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Cracovia Kraków II
Kickoff: 2026-05-30 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1.45 — Cracovia Kraków II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
Model: 49.5% · Implied: 35.9% · Probability edge: +13.6 pts · Est. EV: +28.7%
BTTS (model): Yes 50.5% · No 49.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming III Liga - Group 4 Matches Track Siarka Tarnobrzeg Next Match Prediction Track Cracovia Kraków II Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Siarka Tarnobrzeg & Cracovia Kraków II!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Predictions

III Liga - Group 4 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Avia Świdnik	34	23	8	3	77
2	KSZO 1929	34	22	8	4	74
3	Chełmianka Chełm	34	21	9	4	72
4	Korona Kielce II	34	18	4	12	58
5	Star Starachowice	34	15	10	9	55
6	Czarni Połaniec	34	16	5	13	53
7	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	34	14	10	10	52
8	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	34	14	9	11	51
9	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	34	15	6	13	51
10	Wisła Kraków II	34	15	4	15	49
11	Wisłoka Dębica	34	12	12	10	48
12	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	34	11	10	13	43
13	Naprzód	34	11	6	18	38
14	Sokół Kolb.	34	11	4	19	37
15	Stal Kraśnik	34	9	7	18	34
16	Cracovia Kraków II	34	9	6	19	33
17	Świdniczanka Świdnik	34	5	5	25	20
18	Sparta KW	34	4	1	29	13

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Avia Świdnik	34	84	35	+49	77
2	Wisła Kraków II	34	67	58	+9	49
3	KSZO 1929	34	66	30	+36	74
4	Korona Kielce II	34	66	59	+7	58
5	Chełmianka Chełm	34	65	31	+34	72
6	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	34	61	45	+16	51
7	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	34	60	48	+12	52
8	Czarni Połaniec	34	59	49	+10	53
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	34	59	52	+7	43
10	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	34	52	51	+1	51
11	Star Starachowice	34	51	43	+8	55
12	Naprzód	34	45	56	-11	38
13	Cracovia Kraków II	34	44	71	-27	33
14	Stal Kraśnik	34	42	52	-10	34
15	Wisłoka Dębica	34	37	35	+2	48
16	Sokół Kolb.	34	36	54	-18	37
17	Świdniczanka Świdnik	34	36	80	-44	20
18	Sparta KW	34	29	110	-81	13