Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 4 / Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów vs Star Starachowice

Prediction Audit: Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów vs Star Starachowice Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów
May 29, 2026 - 15:30
3 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 61%
Star Starachowice Star Starachowice

AI correctly predicted the Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Star Starachowice -1.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 41.8% 40.8% +1.0 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 25.3% +0.3 pp Aligned
Star Starachowice 32.6% 33.9% -1.4 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów win 3–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów win 3–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 30, 2026 · 19:07 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Star Starachowice 32.6%
    • xG · Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 1.45 — Star Starachowice 1.25
  2. May 30, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 2.18 · Draw 3.51 · Star Starachowice 2.62
    • Implied 1X2 · Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 40.8% · Draw 25.3% · Star Starachowice 33.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 30, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 2.18 · Draw 3.51 · Star Starachowice 2.62
    • Implied 1X2 · Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 40.8% · Draw 25.3% · Star Starachowice 33.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 29, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 93/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 28, 2026 · 14:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2216986

Closing Odds 2.62
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów win · Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 3–1 Star Starachowice
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: III Liga - Group 4
  • Fixture: Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów vs Star Starachowice
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-30 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 1.45 — Star Starachowice 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 71.9% · Implied: 64.5% · Probability edge: +7.4 pts · Est. EV: +7.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 71.9% · No 28.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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See Upcoming III Liga - Group 4 Matches Track Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów Next Match Prediction Track Star Starachowice Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

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III Liga - Group 4 III Liga - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Avia Świdnik 34 23 8 3 77
2 KSZO 1929 34 22 8 4 74
3 Chełmianka Chełm 34 21 9 4 72
4 Korona Kielce II 34 18 4 12 58
5 Star Starachowice 34 15 10 9 55
6 Czarni Połaniec 34 16 5 13 53
7 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 34 14 10 10 52
8 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 34 14 9 11 51
9 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 34 15 6 13 51
10 Wisła Kraków II 34 15 4 15 49
11 Wisłoka Dębica 34 12 12 10 48
12 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 34 11 10 13 43
13 Naprzód 34 11 6 18 38
14 Sokół Kolb. 34 11 4 19 37
15 Stal Kraśnik 34 9 7 18 34
16 Cracovia Kraków II 34 9 6 19 33
17 Świdniczanka Świdnik 34 5 5 25 20
18 Sparta KW 34 4 1 29 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Avia Świdnik 34 84 35 +49 77
2 Wisła Kraków II 34 67 58 +9 49
3 KSZO 1929 34 66 30 +36 74
4 Korona Kielce II 34 66 59 +7 58
5 Chełmianka Chełm 34 65 31 +34 72
6 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 34 61 45 +16 51
7 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 34 60 48 +12 52
8 Czarni Połaniec 34 59 49 +10 53
9 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 34 59 52 +7 43
10 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 34 52 51 +1 51
11 Star Starachowice 34 51 43 +8 55
12 Naprzód 34 45 56 -11 38
13 Cracovia Kraków II 34 44 71 -27 33
14 Stal Kraśnik 34 42 52 -10 34
15 Wisłoka Dębica 34 37 35 +2 48
16 Sokół Kolb. 34 36 54 -18 37
17 Świdniczanka Świdnik 34 36 80 -44 20
18 Sparta KW 34 29 110 -81 13
III Liga - Group 4 Poland. III Liga - Group 4 Predictions